Bitcoin buying metric with average 109% gains flips green at $88K

Bitcoin buying is back in 2026 as institutions have acquired more BTC per day than miners produced.

Key points

• Institutions have been “net buyers” of Bitcoin for eight days straight, a dedicated tracking metric reports.
• Sustained net buying has resulted in average BTC price upside of nearly 110% since 2020.
• Bitcoin is due a relief bounce after three months of losses.

Institutions buy 76% more BTC than miners add

The latest data from quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments shows institutional buys beating mined supply by almost 76%.

After a period of uncertainty over the new year that followed two months of demand breakdown, major corporate players are interested in BTC exposure again.

Capriole’s Net Institutional Buying metric, which includes purchases by corporate treasuries and the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), has recorded eight “green” days in a row.

This means that on each of those days, net institutional buying appetite was more than the BTC added to the supply by miners. On Monday, this “excess” demand totaled 76%.

“Institutions are once again net buyers of Bitcoin,” Capriole founder Charles Edwards commented in response to the data in a post on X.

Edwards revealed that historically, BTC/USD has seen significant gains in the period after institutional buying flips positive versus newly mined supply.

Since 2020, the average increase has been 109%, with the previous flip sparking 41% upside.

BTC price due $100,000 comeback in January

Network economist Timothy Peterson added to the optimistic takes on BTC price performance going forward.

History, he agreed, is on the bulls’ side after a near 40% drawdown against October’s $126,200 all-time highs.

“History favors a return above $100,000 for Bitcoin this month. Bitcoin has had 3 consecutive months of declines.  That has only happened 9 times since 2015,” Peterson wrote on X Tuesday. 

What happens next? 1 month later, Bitcoin was positive 67% of the time.  However, the 3 negative instances were all in 2018 and marked the end of that bear market.

Peterson calculated a smaller average gain as a result of the phenomenon, coming in at 15%.

BTC/USD returned to $94,000 after Monday’s Wall Street open, going on to see its highest levels since mid-November.