AVAX price to target 55% rally under these conditions

• AVAX price has been struggling to overcome the $21.29 hurdle for nearly eight months.
• The recent rejection is likely to drive the altcoin into the $13.86-to-$15.18 demand zone. 
• A bounce from this zone is key for targeting the $21.29 and $23.33 hurdles.
• Bullish thesis invalidation would occur if Avalanche bulls fail to defend $13.71 support.

AVAX price has been on a tight leash ever since the altcoin breached a crucial support structure on August 26, 2022. This move has kept the Avalanche from moving higher. Changing winds in the crypto sphere could set the stage for an explosive move soon.

Also read: Avalanche Cortina upgrade might be the Hail Mary AVAX needs

AVAX price needs to buckle up

AVAX price slid below the $21.29 support level on August 26, 2022, and crashed 55%. Since then, the altcoin has attempted to recover above the aforementioned level five times but failed each time. The recent rejection on April 18 caused Avalanche bulls to disappear, making the altcoin nosedive 21%. 

A continuation of this downtrend could push AVAX price lower. The $13.86-to-$15.18 demand zone is where sidelined buyers should be focused on. A dip into this area is where Avalanche could kick-start the upswing as the unfilled buy orders are likely to be triggered. Hence, a retest of the demand zone will provide a spike in buying pressure that retail investors can ride.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) are both below the mean levels but a recovery above it would signal the start of a recovery. In such a case, AVAX price will target the $21.29 and $23.33 resistance levels, which is roughly 40%-to-55% away from the said demand zone. 

AVAX/USDT 1-day chart

While the technical outlook for AVAX price looks optimistic, it has a lot of contingencies before it can kickstart an uptrend. Therefore, investors need to wait for confirmation before jumping on the bullish outlook. 

A breakdown of the $13.71 support level will invalidate the bullish thesis for AVAX price and potentially trigger a downswing to $11.93.

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