AVAX price is looking at a 20% rally, provided this key level is breached

• AVAX price is currently trading at $18.07, inching closer to the critical resistance at $19.17
• Price indicators are suggesting a bullish outlook for the altcoin, which would be essential in kicking off a 20% rally.
• A decline below $16.00 will, however, invalidate the bullish thesis and potentially pull AVAX down to March lows.

AVAX price has been following the broader market cues to paint green on the charts preparing for the alt season. While the season is yet to arrive, the cryptocurrency is looking at a significant rise if the changing market plays in favor of the altcoin.

AVAX price aims at new highs

AVAX price trading at $18.07, has maintained above the critical support (CS) level at $16.00 for over three weeks now. The 25% rally over the month of March has assisted the altcoin in climbing closer to the critical resistance (CR) at $19.17. 

Sitting at the confluence of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the critical resistance level would need to be flipped into a support floor. This would help AVAX price to rise toward $21.58, to chart a nearly 20% rally. Breaching this level would also mark a new year-to-date high for the cryptocurrency.

AVAX/USD 1-day chart

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sustaining in the bullish zone after flipping the neutral line into support. Until the indicator crosses into the overbought zone above 70.0, the altcoin is safe from impending corrections.

Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also maintaining its bullish crossover from about two weeks ago. As long as the histogram notes green candles, the bullish narrative will hold up. Should the candles turn red or the signal line (red) cross over the MACD line (blue) and mark a bearish crossover, a price rise could commence.

AVAX RSI and MACD

Investors would thus need to watch out for declines below the immediate support level at $16.94 at the convergence of the 50 and 100-day EMAs. If AVAX price drops further and falls through the CS at $16.00, in line with the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of $20.97 to $14.39, the bullish thesis would be invalidated. The altcoin would thus be vulnerable to a 21% crash to March lows of $14.39.

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