- Bitcoin price shows a tightening of its three-week rangebound movement.
- An ascending triangle forecasts a 7.6% upswing to $30,707.
- A four-hour candlestick close or a decisive breakdown of the $26,662 support level will invalidate the bullish thesis for BTC.
Bitcoin price has been highly consolidative for more than three weeks as it trades between two key levels. Despite the stellar performance of Q1 2023, BTC remains clueless about where it wants to head next. But things could change this week and result in a directional move soon.
Bitcoin price and its next move
Bitcoin price has been consolidating since March 17 in the form of an ascending triangle. This technical formation contains higher lows and equal highs connected via trend lines. The setup forecasts a 7.6% upswing, obtained by adding the distance between the first swing high and swing low to the breakout point.
There are two ways for a breakout to occur for Bitcoin price. The first one is where BTC flips the $28,520 hurdle into a support floor, triggering a move to $30,707.
The second option is where Bitcoin price sweeps the triangle’s hypotenuse at $27,660 to collect the sell-stop liquidity. This move will liquidate early bulls and trap bears, creating a perfect mix of capitulation. After such a liquidity run, BTC is likely to head higher and flip the $28,520 hurdle to trigger a move to $30,707.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart
While the bullish outlook is logical for Bitcoin price, it might only come if the consolidation continues for a fourth week. On the other hand, BTC might dismiss the ascending triangle scenario and deviate below the previous week’s low at $27,166.
The worst-case scenario would occur if Bitcoin price produces a four-hour candlestick close below the $26,662 support level. This development will invalidate the bullish thesis for BTC and potentially trigger a nosedive into the three-day breaker, extending from $25,200 to $23,827, which is a long-term play as detailed in a previous post.
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