Yield Outlook: Inflation = higher rates and yields
We expect US rates and yields to continue to tick up over the next 3-6 months as the US recovery gains speed, inflation expectations and real interest rates continue to rise and markets really begin to discuss the timing of Fed QE tapering.
10Y US yields look set to hit 2.0% on a 6M horizon and 2.2% 12 months from now. While we expect no US rate hikes for the next two years, the market could probably begin to speculate with a vengeance in the Fed starting to hike as early as H2 22.
The Fed will probably begin to sound slightly less dovish at the FOMC meeting in June or September 2021.
We expect reopening to come to the eurozone within the next three months. With higher inflation and inflation expectations, the ECB is likely to 'normalise' the pace of buying under its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) at its June meeting. That is probably also when the market will begin to discuss what QE purchases could look like in 2022.
We expect 10Y Bund yields to edge up a modest 10bp to -0.1% over the next three months and to increase a further 40bp to 0,3% on a 12M horizon.
While we do not expect the ECB, the BoE or the Swedish Riksbank to change policy rates over the next two years, the Norwegian central bank, Norges Bank, looks set to hike in September 2021 and Danmarks Nationalbank will likely deliver a unilateral Danish rate cut of 10bp, taking key policy rates to -0.6%, within the next few months.
Author
Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Research is part of Danske Bank Markets and operate as Danske Bank's research department. The department monitors financial markets and economic trends of relevance to Danske Bank Markets and its clients.
