XAU/USD Price Forecast: Gold struggles to attract investors

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $4,024

Middle East war back-and-forths keep market participants in cautious mode.

The United States macroeconomic calendar is packed with employment data this week.

XAU/USD grinds lower and could soon revisit recent lows in the $3,950 price zone.

Spot Gold trades around $4,020 a troy ounce in the American session on Monday, down on a daily basis amid fresh Middle East tensions. Weekend headlines indicated some hostilities in the Persian Gulf between the United States (US) and Iran, which spurred market caution at the weekly opening. The mood improved a bit on news indicating both parts will meet in Doha on Tuesday to resume talks after both sides agreed to halt the latest round of attacks.

By the American afternoon, the Greenback trades mixed across the FX board. The US Dollar trades with a firmer tone against commodity-related currencies, while it softens against high-yielding rivals.

Other than that, investors await news from the US employment front. The macroeconomic calendar will be packed with data, starting on Tuesday with the release of the JOLTS Job Openings report for May, followed on Wednesday by the June ADP Employment Change report. The news will precede the June Nonfarm Payroll report, scheduled for Thursday.

In general, the labor market is expected to remain healthy despite job creation is seen easing when compared to May. Figures in line with expectations will maintain the focus on inflation in terms of assessing potential Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decisions.

Additionally, the European Central Bank (ECB) is hosting the annual forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. Central banks’ heads, including Fed’s Chair Kevin Warsh, will participate in a policy panel, and market players will be looking for hints on monetary policy.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD trades with a bearish tone as it remains below the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,033.20 as well as the 100-period SMA at $4,187.03 and the 200-period SMA at $4,349.39. This alignment of short- and long-term SMAs above price suggests that rallies will likely be capped. At the same time, e the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovers around 42 while the Momentum indicator turned south around its midline, reinforcing the downside bias.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD, the technical picture is quite similar, as price holds below the 20-day, 200-day and 100-day SMAs at $4,226.42, $4,479.04 and $4,674.14, respectively. The downside tone is reinforced by momentum, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index hovering at 34.63, just above oversold territory, while the 14-day Momentum Indicator remains in negative territory, although directionless.

On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 20-period SMA near $4,033.20, where the first recovery attempts could stall, followed by a more significant barrier at the 100-period SMA at $4,187.03 and then the 200-period SMA at $4,349.39, which define a broader bearish cap. Below the $4,000 mark, the recent multi-month low at $3,959 comes as the next support, while a clear break below the latter opens the door for a steeper and more sustained decline.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD meets support near 0.7150

AUD/USD comes under renewed and quite strong selling pressure ahead of the Asia opening bell on Friday, drifting back toward multi-day troughs near 0.7150, where it seems to have met some decent contention for now. The Aussie’s decline follows the inflation-reignited uptick in the Greenback in response to robust US factory-gate prices in August.

USD/JPY consolidates around 153.50 as bears turn cautious ahead of US inflation

USD/JPY stabilizes above 153.50 during the Asian session on Thursday, but remains near a seven-month low set earlier this week as hawkish BoJ repricing continues to underpin the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, rising September Fed rate-hike bets and escalating US-Iran tensions help ease US Dollar selling pressure, offering some support to the currency pair ahead of US inflation figures.

Gold remains weak, retargets $4,350

Gold keeps the choppy price action on Thursday, now slipping back toward the $4,350 region per troy ounce amid the robust bounce in the US Dollar as well as rising US Treasury yields across the curve, particularly following US Producer Prices and ahead of Friday’s more relevant US CPI data.

Bitcoin holds steady on positive ETF flows despite short-term holders cashing in

Bitcoin's exchange-traded funds (ETF) demand regime has notably shifted, with 30-day net inflows reaching $21.9 billion, according to a Thursday post by CryptoQuant. The data suggests that the average Bitcoin held through spot ETFs is now in profit, with the realized price of the ETF cohort standing at roughly $72,000 to $73,000.

ECB recap: A hawkish hike despite downside growth risks

The European Central Bank (ECB) increased the Deposit Facility Rate to 2.50%, the Refinancing Rate to 2.65% and the Marginal Lending Facility to 2.90%, effective from September 16. The decision was accompanied by a clear warning that the outlook remains highly uncertain, with risks tilted to the upside for inflation and to the downside for growth.

Venezuela’s 65-billion-barrel Oil deal could reshape America’s inflation fight

The United States (US) has secured unprecedented access to part of Venezuela’s vast Oil reserves. The timing is particularly significant as the war with Iran is disrupting Middle Eastern supplies, keeping energy prices elevated and reviving concerns about inflation.