XAU/USD Price forecast: Gold sellers seeking for a fresh 2026 low

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAU/USD Current price: $ 3,989

United States Retail Sales were up a measly 0.2% in June, meeting expectations.
Escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran benefit the US Dollar.
XAU/USD gains bearish momentum and aims to extend its slide to fresh yearly lows.

The US Dollar (USD) changed course after a two-day losing streak and trades firmly higher against most major rivals on Thursday. Persistent tensions in the Middle East, as a result, XAU/USD pierced the $4,000 mark and established a fresh weekly low of $3,974.

The ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran is effectively gone. Both nations have been exchanging attacks for five consecutive days, and authorities on both sides stated that the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) is no longer in force.

Representatives also mention their willingness to negotiate, but Washington is unwilling to leave control of the Strait of Hormuz to its rival, while Tehran won’t give up its nuclear power. The stalemate over those issues is no news, but it's the main reason there’s no progress towards peace.

Crude Oil prices are once again up, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) flirting with $80. Market participants are slightly concerned, but recent encouraging inflation data have cooled most fears. Still, if Oil prices maintain their upward trajectory, concerns about price pressures and higher interest rates are likely to take center stage again.

The Greenback also benefited from US data, with Retail Sales up a modest 0.2% in June, as expected, down from the revised 1% posted in May. Meanwhile, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 11 eased to 208K from the previous 216K, also beating the anticipated 217K.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

In the four-hour chart, XAU/USD trades with a clear bearish tone as price remains decisively below the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,031.12, the 100-period SMA at $4,069.72, and the longer-term 200-period SMA at $4,174.24. This stacked configuration of overhead SMAs suggests that rallies are likely to be capped, moreover, considering the shorter SMA accelerates south below the longer ones. The same chart shows that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims south toward 34, while the Momentum indicator has also turned lower into negative territory, reinforcing the idea of persistent downside pressure.

Looking at bigger time frames, XAU/USD is also on its downward route. The daily chart shows it holds well below its key moving averages. The 20-day SMA at roughly $4,081.06 acts as the first cap on rebounds, while the 200-day and 100-day SMAs, around $4,495.72 and $4,547.88, respectively, sit further overhead and reinforce a broader downside bias. Momentum indicators add to the weak backdrop by extending their slopes into negative territory.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 20-period SMA near $4,031, followed by the 100-period SMA at $4,070, with the 200-period SMA at $4,174 acting as a stronger barrier if a deeper corrective bounce unfolds. The intraday low is the first support, followed by the 2026 bottom at $3,941. Once below the latter, the $3,900 comes next.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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