XAU/USD Price forecast: Gold pressures recent highs, aims for $4,400

XAU/USD Current price: $4,355

• The Middle East crisis with no end in sight leads the market’s sentiment.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its monetary policy decision on Tuesday.
• XAU/USD consolidates gains near a two-month high.

Spot Gold trades near the multi-week peak posted on Friday at $4,371.79, recovering ground after starting the week with a down note. The US Dollar (USD) surged early in the Asian session on news indicating that the naval blockage in the Strait of Hormuz escalated over the weekend, with the United States (US) military redirecting commercial vessels away from Iranian ports, clearly indicating how far from resolving the crisis the two parts are.

The latest on the issue indicates that Tehran submitted a list of demands to reopen the critical sea passage, while US President Donald Trump noted the US will wait for the economic pressure on Iran to mount.

The USD, however, shed ground on the back of strong stocks’ performance, with Asian indexes soaring amid decreased hopes for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike following the poor employment report published by the US on Friday. US indexes trade near record highs, although with limited momentum, the same as the absent strength seen across the FX board.

A scarce macroeconomic calendar exacerbated the quietness across the FX board on Monday, with the focus shifting to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision early Tuesday, and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for Wednesday. The RBA is widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold, although the Board will present fresh forecasts, providing hints on what to expect for the next meetings.

As for the US CPI, annual inflation is foreseen at 3.4% in July, slightly below the 3.5% posted in June. The core annual reading is expected at 2.5%, easing from the previous 2.6%. The figures could support the case for a no rate move in September, leading to additional XAU/USD gains.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart shows XAU/USD holds a bullish near-term bias as it extends its recovery well above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,103.23, while still trading beneath the 100-day SMA at $4,389.19 and the 200-day SMA at $4,496.62, which cap the broader uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator around 66 suggests buyers retain the grip, while the positive Momentum (14) reading reinforces the constructive tone as long as price stays anchored above the short-term average.

In the four-hour chart, XAU/USD is also bullish. The 20-period SMA at $4,296.08 and the longer-term 100- and 200-period SMAs at $4,112.53 and $4,091.06, respectively, reinforce a firmly supported structure. Momentum remains constructive, with the RSI hovering around 72, hinting at mildly overbought conditions while the 14-period Momentum indicator stays in positive territory, suggesting buyers still retain control, albeit with growing risk of a pause or corrective consolidation.

On the upside, initial resistance appears at the 100-day SMA near $4,389, with a subsequent barrier at the 200-day SMA around $4,497, where sellers could attempt to stall the advance. On the downside, the short-term 20-period SMA near $4,296.08 acts as immediate support, followed by the $4,220 price zone. As long as the latter holds, the risk skews to the upside.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)