The Fed is looking at the wrong numbers [Video]

Samuel Briggs Kinesis Money

In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined by Danielle DiMartino Booth of QI Research to examine what lies beneath an economy the Fed calls stable— from small business bankruptcies to credit markets pricing risk not seen in decades.

The two experts discuss why gold has broken from its historical relationship with interest rates, what the Xi-Trump meeting signals for the dollar, and why Danielle believes the biggest risk investors face right now is not the one they are watching.

Timestamps:

00:00 Start
01:45 Why gold has decisively broken its relationship with interest rates
05:12 Xi meets Trump - what is really being discussed behind closed doors
09:50 Weimar Republic echoes and the stock market bubble nobody wants to talk about
14:32 Why political polarisation is the biggest risk nobody is pricing in
20:07 The Fed is looking at the wrong data- what it is missing beneath the surface
25:18 Stagflation is already here - small businesses and farmers are being hit hardest
30:44 Commercial real estate is cracking wider than markets realise
38:02 The margin debt risk most investors are completely underestimating
43:16 Why stacking physical gold and silver remains the only long-term strategy

Author

Samuel Briggs

Kinesis Money

Samuel holds a deep understanding of the precious metals markets, and as an in-house journalist for 1:1 gold and silver-backed monetary system, Kinesis, he is chiefly responsible for updating the community with insights and analys

AUD/USD defends 0.7000 ahead of RBA on Tuesday

AUD/USD is defending 0.7000 at the start of a new week, trading near its lowest level since August 4 amid a bullish US Dollar. US yields hold near multi-year highs amid inflation risks from higher oil prices and rising bets on an October Fed rate hike. This, along with the US-Iran standoff, continues to underpin the safe-haven buck and weigh on the pair ahead of Tuesday's RBA policy announcements.

USD/JPY climbs back toward 158.00 after BoJ minutes amid firm USD

USD/JPY finds dip-buyers and reverses part of Friday's slide driven by speculation that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. However, the BoJ's dovish Minutes cap the JPY. Meanwhile, the US Dollar regains traction as the US-Iran standoff supports crude oil prices, fueling inflation fears and reaffirming bets for an October Fed rate hike. This further supports the pair, driving it back toward 158.00.

Gold tumbles further; focus shifts to $4,100

Gold kicks in the week on the back foot, selling off to the vicinity of the $4,100 mark per troy ounce, levels last traded back in early August. The resurgence of geopolitical concerns in combination with the firmer US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields keep the yellow metal under heavy pressure on Monday.

Bitcoin dips as ETF inflows meet Fed headwinds

Bitcoin trades below $82,800 at the time of writing on Monday after gaining over 4% last week, with the rally losing momentum near recent highs. Strong institutional demand, supported by spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund inflows, continues to drive demand.

The week ahead: A key moment for the global economy as threats rise

UK diesel hits a record, as economic concerns rise. The market expects an aggressive Fed rate hiking cycle, but is it necessary? Oil supply concerns ease, even as oil prices rise. What’s next for the AI trade.

Fed vs BoJ: Both hiked. The market only believes one of them – and the chart shows which

The Fed and the BoJ have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 bps last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.