XAU/USD Price Forecast: Gold defies sellers around $4,500

XAU/USD Current Price: $4,492

• Fed Governor Christopher Waller cooled hopes for a September interest rate hike.
• The United States will publish the August Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.
• XAU/USD is up for a second consecutive day; bulls regained near-term control.

The US Dollar (USD) remains under selling pressure on Thursday, as investors juggle with risk-related headlines and little guidance from macroeconomic data. Spot Gold benefited from broad USD weakness and surpassed the $4,500 level during American trading hours.

The USD traded with a firmer tone at the beginning of the week after the United States (US) and Iran resumed hostilities, sending Oil prices sharply up and hence raising concerns about mounting inflationary pressures. The Greenback, however, came under pressure mid-week amid speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervened in the currency market to prevent the Japanese Yen (JPY) from falling further.

A better market mood kept the USD pressured despite the Middle East conflict. On the one hand, speculative interest welcomed headlines indicating that Russian President Vladimir Putin said there is a chance for constructive peace talks with Ukraine.

Finally, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller cooled the odds for a September rate hike, saying that officials can “wait one meeting,” as long as there are no surprises from upcoming inflation data, adding that a 25 bps hike won’t bring inflation back to 2%.

Data that can shape the upcoming Fed’s decision is around the corner: On Friday, the US will publish the August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, a picture of the situation in the labor market, while next week, the country will unveil the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the same month.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook:

In the four-hour chart, XAU/USD turned bullish as it moved above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,397.48, the 100-period SMA at $4,481.65, and the 200-period SMA at $4,315.95. The moving averages are pretty much horizontal, failing to provide clear directional clues. Still, the price holding above them skews the risk to the upside. Technical indicators, in the meantime, gain upward traction above their midlines, maintaining nice vertical slopes, a sign of strong buying interest.

The XAU/USD pair daily chart keeps a constructive near-term tone as it holds above both the 20-day SMA at $4,462.49 and the 100-day SMA at $4,358.36. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator ticks north at around 56, while the Momentum indicator also holds in positive territory, suggesting steady, rather than exuberant, upside pressure.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 100-period SMA at $4,481.65, followed by the 20-period SMA at $4,397.48 and then the 200-period SMA near $4,315.95. On the topside, the 200-day SMA at $4,533.34 forms the next significant resistance, and a sustained break above this barrier would likely open the door to further gains.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)