XAU/USD outlook: Limited losses after US CPI data
Gold fell in immediate reaction to higher than expected US inflation in June that adds to Fed’s existing stance of keeping interest rates on hold until they have clearer picture of tariff impact on consumer prices.
Fresh weakness broke through pivotal supports at $3340 zone (hourly higher base / Fibo 38.2% of $3283
/ $3374 hit session low at $3334, but subsequent bounce that left long-tailed hourly hammer candle
warns that we have not seen clear break of $3340 pivot yet (sustained break below $3340 is needed to complete hourly bearish failure swing pattern and signal reversal).
However, upside reversal also lacks confirmation (requires bounce and hourly close above minimum $3350).
Although, gold was hit by higher than expected consumer prices, growing uncertainty about Trump’s tariffs continues to fuel safe-haven demand and offset negative impact for now
Overall picture is predominantly bullish, as action remains above rising daily Ichimoku cloud and 14-d momentum is still in positive territory, but hourly studies are mixed.
Look for initial bullish signal on lift above $3353 that would bring in play retest of $3365 (today’s highs) and open way for fresh attack at $3374 tops.
Conversely, firm break below $3340 will be bearish.
Res: 3353; 3365; 3374; 3392
Sup: 3340; 3337; 3332; 3328
Author
Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.
