XAU/USD outlook: Gold price bounces from two-month low

XAU/USD

Bears are taking a breather after two-week pullback (down 6.5%) from new record high found footstep at $2540 zone (contained by rising 100DMA).

Gold price bounced from new two-month low on Monday after pullback faced strong headwinds from Fibo 50% of $2293/$2790 upleg and nearby daily Ichimoku cloud base, boosted by a pause in dollar’s recent strong rally.

Fresh gains eye initial pivots at $2600/11, former strong supports, reverted to solid resistances (broken Fibo 38.2% / psychological / daily cloud base), violation of which is needed to generate initial reversal signal and shift near term focus to the upside.

Recovery after the biggest weekly loss in more than three years (gold price was down 4.5% last week, strongly deflated by signals of Fed’s less aggressive stance on interest rates cuts ) still requires more information about the US central bank’s near-term rate trajectory, to generate clearer direction signal.

Sustained break above $2600 to ease downside pressure, however, rise through next technical barriers at $2633 (Fibo 38.2% of $2790/$2536 pullback / 10DMA) and extension through $2663 (50% retracement / daily Kijun-sen) to validate signal.

Also, deteriorating geopolitical situation on US’s green light for potential missile attacks deeply into Russian territory and their subsequent response that may lead into immeasurable escalation of the war in Ukraine, could be very supportive to safe-haven gold.

Res: 2600; 2611; 2643; 2663.
Sup: 2564; 2536; 2524; 2500.

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