XAU/USD outlook: Fresh rally provides temporary relief and boosts optimism

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

Recovery leg from $3246 (June 30 low) extends into second consecutive day and accelerated on Tuesday, recovering over 50% of the fall seen in past two weeks.

Weaker dollar on fresh tariff uncertainty as Trump’s July 9 deadline nears and his latest notification that there will be no further extension, lifted gold price.

Markets are also concerned about tax cut and spending bill, which President Trump want to be passed before July 4, add to gloomy outlook and contribute to fresh migration into safety.

Near term outlook has brightened after the recent downtrend was contained by top of daily Ichimoku cloud and subsequent bounce pushed the price away from dangerous zone below $3300, for now.

Daily close above broken Fibo level at $3325 (38.2% of $3452/$3246 bear-leg), also broken bear-trendline, is seen as minimum requirement to keep fresh bulls in play while close above cracked $3350 barrier (50% retracement / 20DMA)) would further strengthen near-term structure and shift focus towards $3373 (Fibo 61.8%).

Technical picture on daily chart is improving, although with warning signal from 14-d momentum which holds at the centreline, while overbought 4-h studies suggest that bulls may take a breather after strong acceleration today.

Consolidation or shallow correction should be contained above $3325 to keep near-term action biased higher.

Res: 3358; 3373; 3400; 3437.

Sup: 3330; 3325; 3302; 3295.

Interested in XAU/USD technicals? Check out the key levels

1. R3 3418.85
2. R2 3388.42
3. R1 3363.28
PP 3332.85
1. S1 3307.72
2. S2 3277.28
3. S3 3252.15

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold clings to gains just above $5,000/oz

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s move higher is also underpinned by the slight pullback in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest

Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.

Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.