XAU/USD forecast: Gold bulls eye all-time highs

Gold market overview

Gold continues to show impressive resilience even after failing to secure a breakout above the $4,245 premium zone. The pullback is controlled, orderly, and characteristic of a market rotating back into discount levels before attempting another upside leg.

This is not distribution, nor is it trend exhaustion. Instead, gold is rebalancing its structure—sweeping liquidity, returning to demand, and searching for institutional footprints before initiating its next leg. Traders anticipating a deeper collapse may underestimate how well-supported gold remains on higher timeframes.

Why Gold strength is still dominating the market

Even with the short-term rejection, the strength behind gold’s broader trend is undeniable. Several market forces continue to reinforce gold’s bullish structure, making the current pullback look more like a reload than a reversal.

1. Persistent global uncertainty

Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, and risk-off flows continue to find their way into gold. The Middle East remains a live catalyst, and ongoing global flashpoints ensure gold retains its defensive appeal.

2. Central bank accumulation

Sovereign demand for physical gold remains strong. Multiple central banks—especially from emerging markets—continue to accumulate reserves at an elevated pace. This is not speculative buying; it is long-term strategic positioning that provides solid structural support.

3. Policy easing expectations

Even with short-term yield fluctuations, the broader trend leans toward eventual monetary easing. A shift toward a less restrictive environment typically weakens real yields and supports gold’s upside.

4. Inflation has normalized but not vanished

Inflation has cooled, but it has not returned sustainably to central bank targets. This “sticky” inflation environment reinforces gold’s role as a medium-term hedge.

5. Markets are rethinking risk premiums

Equity volatility remains sensitive, global liquidity is tightening unevenly, and portfolio managers remain cautious. This keeps gold relevant as a stabilizer across multi-asset portfolios.

All of these drivers underscore one key point:

Gold’s macro foundation for bullish continuation is still intact—and very strong.

News and drivers affecting XAU/USD in the past seven days

Recent developments shaping gold’s behavior:

US Dollar stabilization

DXY’s recent consolidation has temporarily slowed gold’s momentum, but without a sustained breakout in the dollar, gold remains positioned to reclaim strength.

Yields near short-term peaks

US yields saw a modest uptick, contributing to gold’s rejection from $4,245. Yet without structural yield strength, this impact is likely temporary.

Lower liquidity conditions

Holiday-related thin trading amplified intraday volatility, leading to sharp wicks and short-term rejections. These conditions often exaggerate pullbacks without changing the broader trend.

Together, these developments help explain the recent dip—but none of them point to a narrative shift against gold.

Technical outlook

Gold is executing a classic, healthy retracement after rejecting the $4,245 premium. The structure aligns with a technical rebalancing into discount pricing.

Key elements from the current setup:

• Rejection at premium pricing
• Ongoing corrective cycle
• FVG and order block convergence at $4,160–$4,120
• Fibonacci alignment between 0.618–0.79
• Room for a higher low before continuation
• All-time high at $4,381 remains the next major liquidity target

Bullish scenario: Demand zone holds and Gold pushes to the all-time high

If gold reacts cleanly at the demand zone:

• The $4,160–$4,120 order block becomes the primary decision point.
• A displacement or break-of-structure would confirm renewed bullish intent.
• A successful reclaim of $4,245 opens the path toward the all-time high at $4,381.
• Upside targets:
• • $4,310
  • $4,340
  • $4,381 (ATH retest)
  • Extended: $4,420 if momentum accelerates

This remains the preferred scenario given the broader macro backdrop.

Bearish scenario: Order block fails and retracement deepens

If price breaks below the $4,120 structure:

• Gold could sweep into the $4,080–$4,030 imbalance.
• A structural break below $4,030 would invite a deeper correction.
• Downside extension targets sit at $3,980 and below.

This scenario requires clear bearish confirmation—it is not yet the dominant expectation.

Final thoughts

Gold remains one of the strongest assets in global markets. The recent dip does not undermine the bullish macro or structural narrative. Instead, it positions gold to form a higher low before making another attempt at the all-time high.

With the $4,160–$4,120 zone now in focus, traders should monitor how price behaves there. A strong reaction could be the catalyst that sends gold back toward $4,381—and potentially beyond.