XAG/USD Price Forecast: Silver runs past $60, higher highs at sight

XAG/USD Current price: $62.00

• Tepid United States data weighed on an already weak US Dollar.
• Hopes for a quick solution to the Middle East conflict boosted the mood.
• XAG/USD trades at a fresh one-month high and aims to extend its recovery.

Silver flirted with $63 on Wednesday, its highest in over a month amid renewed market optimism. Investors welcomed news hinting at a soon-to-come deal between the United States (US) and Iran.

XAG/USD traded as high as $62.78 early in the American session, following headlines indicating that the US Treasury lifted counter-terrorism sanctions imposed on three airlines and two aircraft linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard ‌Corps (IRGC) and three airlines.

A Treasury official clarified that the decision was not related to US negotiations with Iran over a possible deal to end hostilities in the Gulf, according to Reuters, yet market players dropped the Greenback on hopes that a deal is closer. The encouraging headline was reinforced by reports suggesting that a deal between Oman and Iran is done, pending Tehran's approval.

The USD was also pressured by local data, as the ADP Employment Change survey showed that the US private sector added measly 44K in July, missing expectations of 70K and below the 98K recorded in June. Also, the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index printed at 54.1 in July, slightly better than the previous 54, although below the 54.5 expected.

XAG/USD short-term technical outlook

Broad USD weakness keeps precious metals near recent highs, with XAG/USD now hovering around the $62 level.  

In the 4-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $62.00, extending its recovery above the critical $61 mark, a former relevant low now an immediate relevant support. The pair holds well above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $59.32 and the longer-term 100- and 200-period SMAs at $58.15 and $58.99, respectively, which now underpin the uptrend. The Momentum indicator gains modest upward traction above its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator consolidates around 74, far from signaling exhaustion but instead reflecting the latest advance.

In the daily chart, Silver retains a constructive near-term bias as it trades well above the 20-day SMA at $58.30, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs at $69.22 and $71.06, respectively, remain well overhead, signaling that the broader trend is still capped despite the latest rebound. Momentum has improved, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index around 56 and the 14-day Momentum indicator turning firmly positive, which suggests buyers currently have the upper hand.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the short-term 20-period SMA at $59.32, followed by the 200-period SMA at $58.99 and the 100-period SMA at $58.15, where any dip would likely attract fresh demand while these levels hold. On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA near $69.22, followed by the 200-day SMA at $71.06, a cluster that is likely to act as a tougher supply zone if the rally extends. Once beyond it, however, the path towards $100 will be much clearer.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

(This story was corrected on August 6 at 00:50 GMT to correct the asset name in the second and fifth paragraphs as XAG/USD, instead of XAU/USD.