XAG/USD Price analysis: Silver regains its bullish poise, aims for $96

Silver trades around $85 per ounce in the American session on Monday, its highest in two months. The precious metal rebounded after headlines indicated that the United States (US) rejected Iran’s peace proposal.

War briefing

The week started with optimism, as Sunday headlines indicated that Iran had responded to the US deal proposal via Pakistan. The Greenback gapped higher across the FX board, as investors rushed to price in the end of the Middle East conflict. The positive mood, however, did not last long as US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, calling it “totally unacceptable.” According to Tehran, Iran’s proposal included finishing the war on all fronts while negotiations continued, while reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Later in the day, President Trump said he was thinking of relaunching his “Project Freedom,” adding that Iran did not make any commitment on nuclear weapons, and that’s what made the deal unacceptable. Higher Oil prices reflect the market’s discouragement, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading at $96.

Market reaction and news

The wild swings seen at the weekly opening ended without leaving much behind: most major pairs stabilize mid American session around their Friday’s closing levels. Other than Oil prices and Silver, there is no progress.

Other than war-related headlines, market players have little to worry about these days. The macroeconomic calendar is sparse, though the US will publish the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday. Core annual inflation, as measured by the CPI, is forecast at 2.7%, slightly higher than the 2.6% posted in March.

XAG/USD short-term technical outlook

Silver’s advance is now looking solid, and XAG/USD could complete a 100% Fibonacci retracement, advancing towards $96.62, March’s monthly top. In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades above its short-, medium- and long-term simple moving averages (SMAs) clustered between roughly $77 and $81, which now underpin a bullish near-term bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims firmly north at about 66, while the positive 14-period Momentum indicator finally left neutral territory, reinforcing the constructive tone as silver pushes further into the upper part of its recent Fibonacci retracement grid.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $89.00, with a break there exposing the cycle high and 100% retracement barrier at $96.62. On the downside, immediate structural support is located at the 61.8% retracement at $83.02, ahead of the 100-day SMA near $80.72 and the 50% retracement at $78.82; deeper pullbacks would look to the 20-day SMA around $76.96 and the 38.2% retracement at $74.61 as additional demand zones before the broader bullish structure comes into question.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)