WTI tested above $95/bbl amid attack on ARAMCO headquarters

Asia market update: TECH sentiment and KOSPI remain cautious ahead of big earnings; MAS delivers dovish surprise; WTI tested above $95/bbl amid attack on ARAMCO headquarters; CN trade surplus crushed ests; US financial earnings continue [BlackRock, BofA, MS].

General trends and developments

- Following a relatively flat (S&P 500 trading between the 7.786.11-7.814.15 band) U.S. equity trading session, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq FUTs opened flat at 7,855 (vs. 7.856 prior) and flat at 30,778 (vs. 30,792 prior) respectively. Tier 1 global investment banks reported Q3 earnings, with GS beating estimates at EPS $17.01 v $12.90e and revenue $18.7B v $16.9Be, C beating at EPS $2.85 v $2.66e and revenue $23.8B v $23.7Be, JPM missing at adj EPS $5.75 v $5.94e and managed revenue $50.9B v $52.2Be despite raising FY26 NII guidance to $106.2B from $105.5B, and WFC beating on adj EPS $1.87 v $1.85e but missing on revenue at $21.9B v $22.1Be; GS shares rose more than +4%, while JPM shares recovered -4% losses, WFC traded lower and C shares slipped. As traders digest the results, APAC financials have trended lower in Australia, Japan and Singapore. Later on Wed, BlackRock, BofA and Morgan Stanley are due to release earnings.

-Technology earnings and margins remain focal points. ASML is expected to report Q3 results during the European morning. Third quarter figures are due from TSMC on the following day [Oct 15th]. Recently, Q3 earnings from chipmakers Samsung and Nanya Technology disappointed. In late Sept, Micron beat on all metrics, except Q1 gross margin guidance, which implied the possibility for a q/q decline. Nvidia’s CFO had previously noted his company was resetting expectations on margins due to extreme pricing conditions for memory and higher component costs [post earnings comments from Aug 26th]. TSMC also guided its Q3 operating margins lower q/q [Jul 16th].

- Rio Tinto (RIO.AU) reported Q3 Pilbara iron ore production of 83.4Mt, down 1.0% y/y, while shipments rose 2.0% y/y to 85.7Mt. (**Note: Rio Tinto alone shipped 326.2Mt from WA in 2025, compared with Pilbara Ports’ “record” throughput of 775.7Mt across its terminals in FY25 [which handled ~81% of Australia’s total iron ore exports].).

- Oil futures re-opened higher, with WTI crude rising +0.6% to $94.72/bbl (vs. 94.14/bbl prior) and Brent rising +0.6% to $106.35 (vs. $105.69/bbl prior), supported by Saudi Arabia’s firm stance against threats to Red Sea shipping freedom in escalated tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast for the sixth consecutive time to 180K bpd (vs. 380K bpd prior), while raising its 2027 outlook for the fifth straight month to 2.55M bpd (vs. 2.36M bpd), reflecting expectations of a stronger rebound next year.

- Central banks continue to shy away from consecutive tightening moves, as evidenced by MAS’ dovish surprise. Recent, US financial press has even noted the BOJ might have little appetite to tighten in Oct [30th], which is overall consistent with OIS probabilities [~9%]. Hence, JGB traders were again unscathed at today’s 5-year bond auction. Meanwhile, OIS probabilities continue to favor the US Fed leaving rates unchanged when it meets later in Oct [28th]. There is currently no need for a rate hike in 2027 at this time with one more interest rate hike being appropriate this year, according to NY Fed President Williams.

- The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) maintained the rate of appreciation of its policy band, contrary to prior expectations of a slight tightening [17/20 economists anticipated a policy adjustment according to a US financial press poll]. The MAS has tightened its policy twice since April 2026, with a slight increase in the rate of the appreciation in a tweaked policy in July. MAS stated no change to the width of the band and the level at which it is uncentered, noting that the S$NEER to continue to strengthen and lean against the anticipated near-term rise in imported inflation. CPI & Core CPI inflation stated average projections of +1.5–2.5% next year, with AI-related activity expected to moderate in H2 of 2027. Meanwhile, Singapore’s Q3 advance GDP rose +1.1% q/q (vs. +1.3% q/q expected) and rose +5.4% y/y (vs. +5.2% y/y expected), with prior readings both revised higher to 1.5% (vs. 1.4% prior) and 6.2% (vs. 5.9% prior) respectively.

- China’s September data released today showed a mixed but externally resilient picture. CPI edged up to a still-modest +0.9% y/y (vs. +1.0% expected), held back by falling food prices at -1.7% y/y, while PPI surged to a four-year high of +5.0% (vs. 4.4% expected), widening the PPI-CPI gap. Trade was the standout: the surplus surged to +$133.5B (vs. +$119.1B prior) as exports soared +36.3% (vs. +25.7% expected) and imports rose +31.0% (vs. 25.0% expected), driven by strong global tech demand and a pre-holiday shipping rush ahead of the “golden week” break. The PBOC again allowed the yuan to firm to its strongest fixing since February 2nd, 2023, and continued routine liquidity support. Overall, the numbers highlight an economy still powered by robust external demand while domestic consumption remains relatively soft, leaving room for policy to stay accommodative.

- US equity FUTs +0.1% to +0.2% during Asia trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using EST/EDT time-zone)

-Mon Oct 12th: IMF Semi-Annual Meetings, IN Sept CPI, RU Aug Trade Balance, (Mon night, JP Sept PPI, AU Sept 28-29th RBA Meeting Minutes, DE Sept CPI).

-Tue Oct 13th: US OPEC Monthly Report, US Sept Existing Home Sales, (Tue night, JP Sept M2 & M3 Money Supply, SG Q3 Preliminary GDP, CN Sept CPI & PPI, CN Sept Trade Balance, JP 5-Year JGB Auction).

-Wed Oct 14th: US IEA Monthly Report, US Sept CPI & Core CPI, (Wed night, KR Sept Trade Balance, AU Sept Unemployment Rate & Employment Change & Participation Rate, KR M2 & M3 Money Supply, JP Aug Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization, UK Aug GDP & Trade Balance).

-Thu Oct 15th: IN Sept Trade Balance, CN Sept New Yuan Loans & Total Social Financing & M2 Money Stock, EU Aug Industrial Production, US Sept Retail Sales & PPI, (Thu night, NZ Sept Manufacturing PMI, KR Sept Unemployment Rate, SG Sept Trade Balance, MY Q3 Preliminary GDP).

-Fri Oct 16th: EU Sept CPI, EU Aug Trade Balance, US Sept Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization Rate.

Holidays in Asia this week

-Mon Oct 12th: Japan.

-Tue Oct 13th: Thailand.

-Fri Oct 16th: Thailand.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

-(AU) ASX 200 Index opens -0.3% at 8,757.

-(AU) Australia Sept Westpac Leading Index M/M: -0.1% v -0.0% prior.

-(AU) Australia sells A$700M v A$700M indicated in 4.25% Mar 2036 Bonds: Avg Yield: 5.2899% v 4.9923% prior; bid-to-cover: 4.90x v 4.73x prior.

-(AU) RIO.AU Reports Q3 Pilbara Iron Ore output 83.4Mt, -1.0% y/y v 84.9Mte; Pilbara Iron Ore Shipments 85.7Mts, +2.0% y/y v 85.5Mtse; Affirms outlook.

-(AU) CBA.AU Looking ahead, Australian growth is slowing, inflation remains too high. Will take time for higher interest rates to bring inflation back into target range. - AGM Statement.

-(AU) BHP.AU [Regarding BHP's Escondida mine in Chile] Supervisors' Union: Contract talks failed; Strike to begin.

-(NZ) New Zealand Aug Net Migration: 1.5K v 3.2K prior.

-(NZ) New Zealand extended pact for 550K-barrel diesel reserve until August 2027.

China/Hong Kong

-(CN) Shanghai Composite Index opens -0.3% at 3,790; (HK) Hang Seng Index opens -0.3% at 24,282.

-(CN) China SEPT CPI Y/Y: 0.9% V 1.0%E.

-(CN) China Sept trade balance: $133.5B V $117.8BE.

-(CN) China Sept trade balance (CNY-denominated): 906.0B V 809.3B prior.

-(CN) China Customs Vice Minister: In the first three quarters, China's foreign trade has effectively dealt with various external shocks. China's foreign trade has kept good development momentum.

-(CN) China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: Willing to continue playing the role supporting progress in China-EU trade and investment consultation mechanisms.

-(CN) New Yalu river bridge linking China and North Korea will open on October 15th, 2026 - Xinhua.

-(CN) China Commerce Ministry: Affirms fertilizer import tariff quotas for 2027 from 2026 at 13.65Mt.

-(CN) China's PLA Navy [on organized aircraft carrier training exercises in Western Pacific]: The routine exercise organized in accordance with the annual plan is aimed at enhancing troops’ combat-readiness.

-(CN) China auctions 3-month bills, 1-year bonds and 50-year special sovereign bonds.

-(CN) China PBOC sets the yuan mid-point at 6.7249 v 6.7298 prior (strongest level since February 2nd, 2023).

-(CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY56B in 7-day Reverse Repos; Net injects CNY56B v injects CNY65B prior.

-(HK) Hong Kong low aggregate balance has led to concerns about rate volatility; the closing aggregate balance was HK$54.1B – US financial press.

Japan

-(JP) Nikkei 225 Index opens +0.2% at 67,942.

-(JP) Japan sells ¥2.5T VS. ¥2.5T indicated in 5-year JGB bonds; AVG yield: 2.379% v 2.2390% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.56x v 3.42x prior.

-(JP) Japan Sept M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2% prior.

-(JP) Japan Foreign Minister: Japanese embassy in Russia requesting information from Russian authorities about detained Japanese citizen.

-(JP) Japan Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Mimura: All ASEAN economies need to tackle imminent challenges like energy shocks, inflation. We should all deliver fiscal support in such a way not only in ASEAN but also in Japan.

-(JP) Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC) transfers entire 42.08% holding of shares in Pan Pacific Energy to [privately-held] Jera.

Korea

-(KR) Kospi Index opens +0.4% at 6,062.

-(KR) South Korea considers cutting treasury bond issuance by KRW5-10T - News1.

-(KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) sells 2-year Monetary Stabilization Bonds (MSB); Avg Yield: 3.860% v 3.805% prior.

Other Asia

-(SG) Singapore Central Bank (MAS) quarterly monetary policy statement: Maintain the rate of appreciation of the policy band (not expected).

-(SG) Singapore Q3 advance GDP Q/Q: 1.1% V 1.3%E; Y/Y: 5.4% V 5.2%E.

-(IN) India Central Bank Chief: RBI determined to do what is necessary to ensure an orderly Rupee; Recent RBI measures are not capital control measures. [EU market close].

-(PH) Philippine Central Bank (BSP) Governor: We still focus on price stability but the way we do monetary policy has changed. Because of all the uncertainty, we do scenario analyses, take them much more seriously than before.

-(IN) India Trade Min Goyal: US-India relationship is substantive, consequential. US-India relationship will only get better.

-(IN) India Central Bank (RBI) said to be likely selling USD through state-run banks to limit the Rupee weakness – traders.

-(TH) Thailand Central Bank (BOT) Deputy Governor: Reiterates can afford to hold fire on rates.

-(TH) Thailand sells total THB81B in 6-month bills, 3-year and 20-year bonds.

-(VN) Vietnam Deputy PM Tuc: Vietnam, US basically almost completed negotiations for trade deal. Vietnam sent final text for trade deal to US.

-(TW) Taiwan’s Thunder Tiger advances US drone ties with MOU, according to CNA; US defense startups flock to Taiwan to build China-free drones - WSJ [update].

North America

-IMF Managing Dir Georgieva: Advanced economies are worst offenders in not using post-pandemic recovery to rebuild buffers. Now may be a good time for a prudent, hawkish monetary policy in many countries - IMF-World Bank 2026 Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.

-(US) Sept existing Home Sales: 3.99M V 3.95ME [US market close].

-(US) Fed's Williams (moderate, voter): Sees no need for rate hike in 2027 at this time with one more interest rate hike appropriate this year [US market close].

-(US) ADP Preliminary Employment Change for 4-weeks ending Sept 26th: +24.8K v +25.3K prior [US market close].

-(US) Sept NFIB Small Business Optimism: 97.9 v 98.2e [US market close].

-(US) Pres. Trump: Massive Oil, Gas, and Mineral Exploration is getting ready to begin in our new and beautiful Greenland! - post on Truth Social.

-(US) President Trump: Taiwan has agreed to buy 30% of gas from Alaska pipeline - The President holds a political rally in Wasilla, Alaska [Pre-Credentialed Media], Curtis D. Menard Memorial Sports Center, Wasilla, AK.

-IMF Official: Countries need to consolidate debts before markets force them. Debt service costs are going up, so the stakes are higher now - IMF-World Bank 2026 Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.

-(US) Attorney for Fed's Lisa Cook: Denounces Trump's new investigation; She will not be able to attend the hearing on Nov 5th - NYT.

-(US) UAW confirms Pres Shawn Fain has been reelected - press.

-(US) JPM Reports Q3 $5.75 adj v $5.94e, Managed Rev $50.9B v $52.2Be; IB rev missed estimate; Guides Q4 NII (ex-markets) $25.5B; Raises FY26 NII (incl markets) $106.2B (prior $105.5B) [US market close].

-(US) GS Reports Q3 $17.01 v $12.90e, Rev $18.7B v $16.9Be [US market close].

-(US) C Reports Q3 $2.85 v $2.66e, Rev $23.8B v $23.7Be [US market close].

-(US) OPENAI.IPO Attorney General Blanche: Attempt by Saudi national on OpenAI taken seriously - post on X.

-(US) OPENAI.IPO Announces in early stage talks to acquire startup Trail of Bits - The Information.

-(US) MSFT Spokesperson: Azure leadership has not directed teams to develop cost-cutting plans [following Microsoft Cloud President asking leaders to find cost cuts information].

-(US) WFC Reports Q3 adj $1.87 v $1.85e, Rev $21.9B v $22.1Be; affirms FY26 NII $50B, expenses $55.7B [US market close].

-(MX) Mexico to allow companies to settle tax issues without penalty in 2027; cites President Sheinbaum - Press.

-(DRC) World Bank: Expands Ebola response support, commits $80M for DRC, $13M to help neighboring countries.

Europe

- (EU) ECB Chief Lagarde: Inflation has been rising predominantly but not exclusively as a result of energy prices. We're not seeing any second round effects yet. In Europe you see anticipation of wage increases through collective bargaining arrangements, we're following those entry points - IMF-World Bank 2026 Annual Meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.

- (DE) Germany Sept final CPI M/M: 0.6% V 0.6% PRELIM; Y/Y: 3.3% V 3.3% PRELIM; Confirms 7th straight month with CPI above the ECB target [**Note: ECB has a symmetrical inflation target of 2%] [EU market close].

- (DE) Germany Govt Official: Recent EU-China trade agreement is a step in the right direction but does not solve the overall issue of the large deficit [EU market close].

- (EU) ECB's Wunsch (Belgium): ECB will probably have to hike interest rates again - US financial press.

- (RU) Russia announcement on upcoming OFZ bond issuance (held on Wed).

- (UR) The UK is reportedly planning fresh sanctions and increased support for Ukraine to pressure Russia into joining Trump's energy ceasefire proposal - press.

- (FR) ECB's Moulin (France): It is urgent for France to show that it is committed to fiscal consolidation and vote on the 2027 budget, reduce the deficit. The increase in yields could have an impact on demand and lead us to have a more moderate response to inflation shock.

- (UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer (fin Min) Healy set to pay for budget giveaways without more borrowing - FT.

- (UK) UK Fin Min Healy will reportedly announce £1B online marketplace tax crackdown - The Times.

- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Member Duda: Fuel prices and risk of broader global commodity shock are main upside risks to inflation [EU market close].

Middle East

- (SA) OPEC monthly Oil report (MOMR); Cuts 2026 Global Oil Demand Growth from 380K bpd to 180K (6th straight cut); Raises 2027 Global Oil Demand Growth from 2.36M to 2.55M bpd (5th straight raise to forecast) [EU market close].

- (SA) Saudi Cabinet: Will not allow threats to Red Sea shipping freedom - press [EU market close].

- (SA) Saudi-led Coalition: Intercepted and destroyed missile in Al-Kharj.

- (IR) Israel PM Netanyahu and Pres Trump spoke last week and discussed possible new Iran actions - Axios [US market close].

Levels as of 01:20 ET

Nikkei 225 +0.4%; ASX 200 -0.6%; Hang Seng +0.5%; Shanghai Composite -0.4%; Kospi +0.6%.

Equity S&P500 Futures +0.2%; Nasdaq100 +0.1%; DAX +0.3%; FTSE100 +0.1%.

EUR 1.1212-1.1196; JPY 158.52-158.11; AUD 0.7004-0.6978; NZD 0.5630-0.5605.

Gold flat at $4,161/oz; BTC -0.2% at $83,571; WTI Crude Oil +0.6% at $94.70/bbl; Copper +0.5% at $6.7645/lbs.