Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
US CRUDE OIL
WTI oil remains steady on Thursday and extends recovery to new two-week high at $67.13. The price continues to trend higher within rising daily cloud, spanned between $65.90 and $67.83. Bullish near-term sentiment was additionally boosted by stronger than expected drop in crude inventories (EIA report on Wednesday showed draw of 4.14 million barrels vs expected drop of 1.44 million barrels. Daily techs are improving and gaining momentum which underpins recovery for eventual attack at key barriers at $67.53 (Fibo 38.2% of $72.89/$64.21 fall) and $67.83 (daily cloud top). Sustained break here is required to generate stronger reversal signal and open way for further retracement of $72.89/$64.21 descend. The price action would keep bullish stance while cloud base hold, while sustained break lower would soften the tone and risk weakness, as concerns about rising US production overshadow positive near-term outlook. Focus is turning towards 22 June OPEC meeting where cartel's oil producers will discuss their own supply policy and other top producers out of OPEC will join the next day. Saudi Arabia is expected to propose increase of the production, while some members of the cartel are opposing the idea.
Res: 67.53; 67.83; 68.55; 69.57
Sup: 66.51; 66.26; 65.90; 64.84
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