Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA
Financial Source
The FTSE 100 typically has a very strong time of year in December. With European stocks still offering better value than US stocks, will we see a rise higher in the FTSE 100 into year-end? There are a number of risks around the markets at the moment including the new South African variant which would likely be vaccine-resistant. Therefore, traders should be extra vigilant. Please note that just because a virus is virulent it does not mean that it is deadly. There are still a lot of unknowns.
Over the last 15 years, the FTSE 100 has risen 12 times out of 15. The average return has been 2.70%. The largest gain was in 2008 and the largest loss was in 2018. The question now is will this seasonal pattern play out again this year?
Major trade risks
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A move towards earlier interest rates from the Fed will change this outlook as well any strong risk-off trading.
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Any bad news on the new variant from South Africa could change this outlook too.
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