Weekly waves: EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Gold

EUR/USD weekly doji candle at 38.2% Fib resistance

1. The EUR/USD weekly Doji indicates indecision at the strong 38.2% Fib resistance.

2. There is also a small rising wedge reversal chart pattern visible on the 4 hour and daily chart.

3. A bearish bounce (red arrows) could confirm the end of a wave A (pink) of wave 4 (gray).

4. A small bullish push up (blue arrow) could still be part of a wave.

5. A (pink) as long as price action stays below 1.0750. A bearish ABC could take place within wave B (pink).

6. The ABC (pink) could complete a wave 4 (gray) after which a new downtrend could emerge in wave 5 (gray).

GBP/USD approaches key golden 61.8% Fibs near 1.25

1. The GBP/USD seems to be completing a bullish ABC (yellow) pattern.

2. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (purple) level and -61.8% Fibonacci target (brown) level at 1.2425-1.25 could be the main target for the wave C (yellow).

3. A break above the local resistance line (orange) could indicate one more push higher (blue arrow) towards that target zone.

4. Eventually, a larger bearish retracement is expected to take place (red arrows) once price action completes the ABC (yellow) of wave W (pink).

5. A WXY (pink) correction is expected within the wave 4 (gray).

Gold rally requires bearish pullback

Gold (XAU/USD) is making a nice rally but has failed to show a higher high in the past few days:

1. The lack of a higher high and a rising wedge reversal chart pattern (trend lines) could indicate the end of the bullish price swing.

2. In that case, price action seems to have completed a 5 wave pattern (green) in wave 1 (yellow).

3. A break below the support trend line (green) could indicate an ABC (green) retracement within the wave 2 (yellow).

4. The wave 2 (yellow) remains valid as long as price action remains above the 88.6% Fibonacci level and most importantly, the previous bottom.

5. A bullish bounce (blue arrows) at the FIbonacci retracement levels could see price action make a bullish rally towards the Fibonacci targets within waves 3.

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The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method simple wave analysis and trading. For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter