Morning briefing: EUR/USD vulnerable as bears eye 1.1650 support

The Dollar Index is rising within the 97.75-98.85 region. A break past 99 will be required to make the outlook further bullish. EURUSD is declining and a break below 1.165 if seen can make it vulnerable to fall towards 1.160-1.155. EURINR is also coming off and a break below 105 if seen, can take it towards 104.50-104.00 initially. EURJPY & USDJPY continues to hold the 182-185 & 154-158 range respectively for now. USDCNY is stuck between 7.01-6.98 region. Aussie has immediate support around 0.67, above which the target of 0.68 is kept open. Pound is moving within 1.355-1.340 region for now. USDINR had declined below 90 but while above 89.80/75 we retain our view of seeing a rise towards 90.30-90.50 levels. or slightly higher while it trades above 90.00. US Trade Balance is scheduled for release today.

The US Treasury yields remain lower. The sideways range remains intact, and the yields are coming down within the range. The range breakout is needed to get clarity on the next move. Will the jobs data release tomorrow provide a trigger for the breakout? We will have to wait and watch. The German yields have come down further. Near-term outlook is negative. The yields can fall more from here. The 10Yr GoI has dipped further. Looks like the yield can see some more dip from here before moving higher.

While the indices started the year with gains, they now seem to be losing steam after mixed economic comments from Trump. The Dow has fallen after a decline in financial and energy prices on comments from Trump and the index can now head towards 48000. But whether the DAX would follow the decline in the Dow and fall towards 24000 is to be seen. Nifty could test the support region of 26100-26000 before a possible bounce to 26500 later. Nikkei and Shanghai have dipped and could trade below 53000 and 4100 for the near term.

Brent and WTI remain under pressure and can stay range-bound between $62–$58 and $59–$55. Gold has dipped but holding above $4,400 keeps the upside open towards $4,550–$4,600. Silver is testing support near $76, which if it holds can push prices back to $80–$81, else can dip to $74–$70. Copper remains weak below $6 with downside towards $5.70–$5.60. Natural Gas has rebounded from support and can rise towards $3.60–$3.80.