Weekly Trades: GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD, EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD, GBP/ZAR

Brian Twomey Brian's Investment

This week's trade theme derived from solicited trader requests and the winning pairs are GBP/NZD, GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, EUR/CAD and again, GBP/ZAR. All wide ranging currency pairs to include 2 traditionally neutral pairs; EUR/CAD and GBP/CAD.

Two factors qualify EUR/CAD as neutral: as middle currency to EUR/USD and current price location between the 5 and 10 year averages from 1.4200's to 1.4700's. Recall last year's March / April's EUR/CAD trade from 1.5300's to 1.4800's. As stated last year, EUR/CAD was then dropped from trade consideration as 1.4800's settled EUR/CAD's price. Once a price is settled, any pair is dropped.

Since last April 2019, EUR/CAD traded 1.5100's to 1.4300's and 1.4900's to 1.4300's from July 19 to current day. Why drop is due from a 500 pip range and settled price lacks quaification for longer term 5 and 800 pip trades and EUR/CAD's range longer term entered compression mode. A breakout is warranted from current location between 5 and 10 year averages but until EUR/CAD trades to either 1.5500's or 1.3500's then only a weekly trade exits.

GBPCAD automaticaly qualifies as neutral due to total opposite and location between defining currency market pairs, GBP/USD and USD/CAD. GBP/CAD further qualifies as neutral as it currently trades between 5 and 10 year averages from 1.7200's to 1.7600's. Normal neutrality for GBP/CAD is trade between 5 and 16 year averages. As EUR/CAD, a breakout is on the way for GBP/CAD. Short term, nothing special in regards to GBP/CAD except its wide ranges and qualification as a great weekly trade.

Overall, the vast majority of G28 currency pairs trade below 5 year averages and this means not only are prices extremely low but wide ranging movements remains dead. Until prices trade above 5 year averages, volatility will remain lifeless.

Short term, daily non movement to nation's interest rates are compressing currency price ranges and this situation is growing worse. The ECB's new STR interest rate introduced last October now allows EUR/USD barely a 100 pip trade week, AUD at barely 50 pips, NZD at 100 and the list goes on. Nothing special to GBP except it trades wilthin the confines iof its basic ranges.

GBP/ZAR contains easily ability to trade 4500 - 5000 pips per week. Currently GBP/ZAR at its 19.4546 close is massively overbought. The long term target remains 18.2850 on a break of its 5 year average at 18.5877. GBP/USD remains overbought and in a downtrend since it touched its long term target at 1.3400's. Until 1.3515 breaks, GBP/USD's downtrend remains.

GBP this week will suffer a bit higher until short points are achieved.

Weekly Trades

GBP/NZD. Short 2.0276 and 2.0304 to target 1.9991. Must cross 2.0248, 2.0220, 2.0192, 2.0162, 2.0134, 2.0106, 2.0078, 2.0050, 2.0022 and 1.9994.

Break 1.9931 targets 1.9820.

GBP/AUD. Short 1.9441 and 1.9480 to target 1.9117. Must cross 1.9402, 1.9363, 1.9324, 1.9285, 1.9246, 1.9207, 1.9168 and 1.9129.

GBP/CAD. Short 1.7315 and 1.7341 to target 1.7133. Must cross 1.7289, 1.7263, 1.7237, 1.7211, 1.7185 and 1.7159.

Short below 1.7081 to target 1.6977. Must cross 1.7055, 1.7029 and 1.7003.

EUR/CAD. Long 1.4357 and 1.4342 to target 1.4534. Long at market open is also acceptable. Must cross 1.4386, 1.4415, 1.4445, 1.4474, 1.4504 and 1.4519.

GBP/ZAR short 19.4716 and 1.4886 to target 19.0636. Must cross 19.4546, 19.4376, 19.4206, 19.4036, 19.3866, 19.3695, 19.3526, 19.3356, 19.3186, 19.3016. 19.2846, 19.2676, 19.2506, 19.2336,19.2166, 19.1996, 19.1826, 19.1656, 19.1486, 19.1316, 19.1146, 19.0976, 19.0806, 19.0636 target.

Author

Brian Twomey

Brian's Investment

Brian Twomey is an independent trader and a prolific writer on trading, having authored over sixty articles in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities and Investopedia.

EUR/USD looks apathetic around 1.1770

EUR/USD comes under renewed pressure on Tuesday, deflating below the 1.1800 support and reversing two consecutive days of gains. The pair’s decline follows the persistent move higher in the US Dollar, as trade uncertainty dominates the sentiment ahead of President Trump’s SOTU speech.

GBP/USD regains 1.3500 and above

GBP/USD extends its advance for the third day in a row on Tuesday, this time retesting the area beyond the 1.3500 hurdle. Cable’s uptick comes despite decent gains in the Greenback and the dovish message from the BoE’s Bailey at the UK Parliament.

Gold appears offered around $5,150

Gold is giving back a good portion of the recent multi-day rally, receding to the $5,150 zone per troy ounce amid the decent bounce in the US Dollar and mixed US Treasuty yields. In the meantime, markets’ attention remain on upcoming comments from Fed speakers.

Ripple’s DeFi shift in focus: Navigating XRPL EVM sidechain growth, XRPFi migration and liquidity

Ripple (XRP) has continued to trade under pressure, extending its decline by approximately 63% from the record high of $3.66 in July. The remittance token is trading above support at $1.35, while its upside appears limited by key supply zones, starting with $1.40, at the time of writing on Tuesday.

The Citrini report: How a debatable AI narrative can shake Wall Street

That AI-related headline alone was enough to rattle investors.US stocks slid sharply on Monday after a widely circulated Citrini Research memo outlined a hypothetical “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis”, warning that rapid AI adoption could push US unemployment into double digits as early as by mid-2028.

XRP pressured by weak ETF flows and declining retail interest

Ripple (XRP) is edging lower, trading above its intraday low of $1.32 at the time of writing on Tuesday. The decline from its weekly opening of $1.39 reflects heightened volatility in the broader cryptocurrency market, accentuated by tariff-triggered uncertainty.