Weekly FX chartbook: US CPI and FOMC dot plot have a low dovish bar

Saxo Research Team Saxo Bank

Key points

USD: Upside remains limited after post-NFP gains
EUR: EU election jitters could settle
GBP: Resilience pursued amid UK elections
JPY: BOJ could signal a July rate hike
XAU: PBOC’s brakes on gold buying could mean demand shift

USD regained strength at the end of the week on hot US jobs data, but CHF remained an outperformer as SNB shifted its FX stance. Silver plunged sharply following strong gains lately, while Gold also plunged on hot jobs data and reports of PBOC halting gold purchases.

Our FX Scorecard shows positive momentum may be building in USD, GBP and CAD, while negative momentum in NZD and Gold.

Forex COT to the week of June 4 saw dollar longs pared for a sixth consecutive week and down over 50% during this period. Fresh longs were added further to GBP, EUR and NZD while shorts were covered in JPY while added further in CAD, CHF and AUD.

Read the original analysis: Weekly FX chartbook: US CPI and FOMC dot plot have a low dovish bar

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Saxo Research Team

Saxo Bank

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EUR/USD trims gains, hovers around 1.1900 post-US data

EUR/USD trades slightly on the back foot around the 1.1900 region in a context dominated by the resurgence of some buying interest around the US Dollar on turnaround Tuesday. Looking at the US docket, Retail Sales disappointed expectations in December, while the ADP 4-Week Average came in at 6.5K.

GBP/USD comes under pressure near 1.3680

The better tone in the Greenback hurts the risk-linked complex on Tuesday, prompting GBP/USD to set aside two consecutive days of gains and trade slightly on the defensive below the 1.3700 mark. Investors, in the meantime, keep their attention on key UK data due later in the week.

Gold loses some traction, still above $5,000

Gold faces some selling pressure on Tuesday, surrendering part of its recent two-day advance although managing to keep the trade above the $5,000 mark per troy ounce. The daily pullback in the precious metal comes in response to the modest rebound in the US Dollar, while declining US Treasury yields across the curve seem to limit the downside.

XRP holds $1.40 amid ETF inflows and stable derivatives market

Ripple trades under pressure, with immediate support at $1.40 holding at the time of writing on Tuesday. A recovery attempt from last week’s sell-off to $1.12 stalled at $1.54 on Friday, leading to limited price action between the current support and the resistance.

Dollar drops and stocks rally: The week of reckoning for US economic data

Following a sizeable move lower in US technology Stocks last week, we have witnessed a meaningful recovery unfold. The USD Index is in a concerning position; the monthly price continues to hold the south channel support.