Weekly Focus: Deal or no deal is the million-dollar question
Market movers ahead
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In the US, we will look out for the last Fed speeches before the blackout period begins.
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In the euro area, we expect another dire set of industrial production figures for August. We hope the ZEW prints bring better news for October.
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In the UK, we expect Brexit negotiations to take centre stage. We also expect several economic releases and Bank of England speeches.
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We are likely to see a further decline in Chinese GDP growth for Q3. The trade war is one reason but structurally growth also looks set to be on a declining path over the next decade.
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In Sweden, we are due to get the September unemployment rate. Unemployment has soared over the past few months and we expect a correction. Even so, we believe it remains far higher than the Riksbank forecast.
Weekly wrap-up
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It was a bit of a roller coaster week up to the US-China trade talks. We see a 60% chance that the two sides will strike an interim deal at the beginning of the weekend.
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The minutes from the most recent policy meetings revealed a great deal of disagreement among the governing councils of the ECB and the Fed.
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Ireland and the UK indicated they could find a solution for Brexit. Yet, even if the UK and EU come to an agreement, Boris Johnson's government still faces limited parliamentary backing, making it hard to pass a deal in the UK parliament.
Author
Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Research is part of Danske Bank Markets and operate as Danske Bank's research department. The department monitors financial markets and economic trends of relevance to Danske Bank Markets and its clients.
