Market movers ahead

  • In the US, we will look out for the last Fed speeches before the blackout period begins.

  • In the euro area, we expect another dire set of industrial production figures for August. We hope the ZEW prints bring better news for October.

  • In the UK, we expect Brexit negotiations to take centre stage. We also expect several economic releases and Bank of England speeches.

  • We are likely to see a further decline in Chinese GDP growth for Q3. The trade war is one reason but structurally growth also looks set to be on a declining path over the next decade.

  • In Sweden, we are due to get the September unemployment rate. Unemployment has soared over the past few months and we expect a correction. Even so, we believe it remains far higher than the Riksbank forecast.

 

Weekly wrap-up

  • It was a bit of a roller coaster week up to the US-China trade talks. We see a 60% chance that the two sides will strike an interim deal at the beginning of the weekend.

  • The minutes from the most recent policy meetings revealed a great deal of disagreement among the governing councils of the ECB and the Fed.

  • Ireland and the UK indicated they could find a solution for Brexit. Yet, even if the UK and EU come to an agreement, Boris Johnson's government still faces limited parliamentary backing, making it hard to pass a deal in the UK parliament.

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