Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Market movers ahead
-
In the US, we will look out for the last Fed speeches before the blackout period begins.
-
In the euro area, we expect another dire set of industrial production figures for August. We hope the ZEW prints bring better news for October.
-
In the UK, we expect Brexit negotiations to take centre stage. We also expect several economic releases and Bank of England speeches.
-
We are likely to see a further decline in Chinese GDP growth for Q3. The trade war is one reason but structurally growth also looks set to be on a declining path over the next decade.
-
In Sweden, we are due to get the September unemployment rate. Unemployment has soared over the past few months and we expect a correction. Even so, we believe it remains far higher than the Riksbank forecast.
Weekly wrap-up
-
It was a bit of a roller coaster week up to the US-China trade talks. We see a 60% chance that the two sides will strike an interim deal at the beginning of the weekend.
-
The minutes from the most recent policy meetings revealed a great deal of disagreement among the governing councils of the ECB and the Fed.
-
Ireland and the UK indicated they could find a solution for Brexit. Yet, even if the UK and EU come to an agreement, Boris Johnson's government still faces limited parliamentary backing, making it hard to pass a deal in the UK parliament.
This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector.
This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.