Weekly economic and financial commentary: Data delayed, decisions loom

Wells Fargo Research Team Wells Fargo

Summary

United States: Data delayed, decisions loom

The federal government shutdown continues to delay economic data releases, including international trade and jobless claims this week. That said, the September Consumer Price Index is now expected to be published before the end of the month, just in time for the FOMC's next meeting.

Next week: CPI (Wed.), Retail Sales (Thu.), Industrial Production (Fri.)

International: Global economy: Stabilizing or stalling?

This week brought a mix of data releases from foreign economies. Japan’s wage growth slowed more than expected, while Canada’s labor market showed signs of stabilization. On the monetary policy front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its policy rate by 50 bps. And finally, in emerging markets, inflation in both Mexico and Brazil picked up.

Next week: Australia Employment (Wed.), U.K. Monthly GDP (Thu.)

Topic of the week: Seeing the forest for the trees

New tariffs on imported wood products, which include softwood lumber, furniture and cabinets take effect on Oct. 14. We expect them to leave the overall U.S. average effective tariff rate unchanged at 18%. While the impact on consumer spending may be limited, construction costs could be pressured by new lumber tariffs.

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Wells Fargo Research Team

Wells Fargo

EUR/USD: US Dollar to remain pressured until uncertainty fog dissipates

Unimpressive European Central Bank left monetary policy unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. The United States first-tier employment and inflation data is scheduled for the second week of February. EUR/USD battles to remain afloat above 1.1800, sellers moving to the sidelines.

GBP/USD softens to near 1.3600 as BoE hints further rate cuts

The GBP/USD pair loses ground to near 1.3610 during the early Asian session on Monday. The Pound Sterling softens against the Greenback amid growing expectations of the Bank of England’s interest-rate cut. Traders will take more cues from the Fedspeak later on Monday.

Gold eyes acceptance above $5,000, kicking off a big week

Gold is consolidating the latest uptick at around the $5,000 mark, with buyers gathering pace for a sustained uptrend as a critical week kicks off. All eyes remain on the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls and Consumer Price Index data from the United States due on Wednesday and Friday, respectively.

Top Crypto Gainers: Aster, Decred, and Kaspa rise as selling pressure wanes

Altcoins such as Aster, Decred, and Kaspa are leading the broader cryptocurrency market recovery over the last 24 hours, as Bitcoin holds above $70,000 on Monday, up from the $60,000 dip on Thursday.

Weekly column: Saturn-Neptune and the end of the Dollar’s 15-year bull cycle

Tariffs are not only inflationary for a nation but also risk undermining the trust and credibility that go hand in hand with the responsibility of being the leading nation in the free world and controlling the world’s reserve currency.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple consolidate after massive sell-off

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple prices consolidated on Monday after correcting by nearly 9%, 8%, and 10% in the previous week, respectively. BTC is hovering around $70,000, while ETH and XRP are facing rejection at key levels. Traders should be cautious: despite recent stabilization, upside recovery for these top three cryptocurrencies is capped as the broader trend remains bearish.