Weekly column: Trade deals, market cycles, and planetary alignments

Review

President Trump said Thursday his administration and the U.K. agreed to the outlines of a deal on trade, the first in what the White House hopes will be a series of agreements in the wake of U.S. tariffs imposed on allies and adversaries alike. “It’s very conclusive and we think everyone’s going to be happy,” Trump said.… The U.K. says the pact isn’t comprehensive and will focus on reducing tariffs in specific sectors.

Natalie Andrews and Max Colchester, “U.S. and U.K. Unveil Framework for Trade Deal,” www.wsj.com, May 8, 2025

If anyone deserved a good trade deal with the U.S., it was Britain. It actually runs a trade deficit with the U.S., buys a lot of manufactured U.S. products, spends plenty on its own defense and has a leader whom President Trump likes. And yet the agreement announced Thursday was, for Britain, a bad deal, not a good deal. Its exports to the U.S. will now face a minimum tariff of 10%, up from less than 2% in 2023, with some exceptions.… The U.S. is now a high-tariff, protectionist country. Trade deals will be judged not by how much barriers go down, but by how much they go up. This qualifies as British victory only insofar as other countries will probably come out worse.

Greg Ip, “With U.K. Deal, U.S. Signals That 10% Tariff on World Is New Baseline,” Wall Street Journal, May 8, 2025

Last week was a relatively positive and mild week for stock indices, which is not unusual given that there were no major geocosmic reversal signals in effect. In fact, the geocosmic climate has been relatively benign since our three-star geocosmic critical reversal zone (CRD) of April 21, which coincided with a successful retest of the April 7 multi-month bottom. That could all change with the Full Moon as well as Sun/Uranus conjunction and Mercury/Mars square taking place next week, May 12-17.

The prior week opened up with a case of intermarket bearish divergence in the U.S., as the DJIA soared to a new monthly high on Monday, May 5, unaccompanied by the NASDAQ or S&P. Each market pulled back to their weekly lows on Wednesday. But in the absence of any hard aspects, this bearish divergence trigger was negated as prices rallied again to new monthly highs by Thursday, with the first significant trade deal announced. This agreement happened as the Moon ingressed into the safe and supportive sign of Libra, which rules agreements and partnerships. The idea to “Sell in May and go away” in the stock market has therefore been postponed. It could resurrect again by May 19.

The fact that the U.S. stock market has now continued higher for four weeks following its mini-crash, trade war-inflicted low of April 7, is a bullish indicator by itself. Usually, if the market is bearish, a rally in the middle of a primary cycle will not last more than 1-3 weeks (there have been exceptions to this rule, however). What it suggests is that the low of April 7 was not a half-primary cycle low, but rather a 12-week contracted full primary cycle (primary cycles are usually 18 weeks +/- 3 weeks, sometimes +/- 5 weeks). So, the cycle’s pattern is now giving a bullish alert, which will be confirmed if prices continue to make new cycle highs after the 8th week. Until then, there remains a possibility this rally is still a bearish correction, especially since the S&P continues to struggle to exceed our bearish price objective target for a corrective rally of 5700-5750, given in our recent options webinar.

In other markets, Gold had a nice bounce following a $300 decline from its all-time high of $3509 on April 22 (one day after our last three-star CRD), to its low of 3209 on May 1. It rallied back to a secondary high of 3448.20 on May 7, before starting another decline down to a low so far of 3279 on Friday, May 9. In other words, it was an inside week, which neither confirms the market is still bullish nor turning bearish. In lieu of any major geocosmic signatures last week, Silver was also just as non-committal as Gold, trading between a high of 33.48 and a low of 32.16, well within the range of the prior week.

The star of last week was Bitcoin. The weekly low was 93,383 on Tuesday, May 6, the day I issued a Special Bitcoin Report, calling for a minimum rally to 105,00-115,000 soon (with expectations of rising to even higher levels this year). By Friday, Bitcoin was already testing 105,000. This report is still very much valid and valuable for the timing and price targets given ahead. The report also provides two affordable ETFs that could benefit from the overlap of two cycles now underway as of April 7-9. To order a copy of this special report ($35), click here.

Short-term geocosmics

His tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation make up a coherent strategy to benefit Main Street. Tax cuts and cost savings from deregulation raise real incomes for families and businesses. Tariffs provide income-tax relief and create incentives for reindustrialization. Deregulation complements tariffs by encouraging investments in energy and manufacturing.

— Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary, “Trump’s Three Steps to Economic Growth,” Wall Street Journal, May 4, 2025.

How do we avoid this messy doom loop? It doesn’t take a degree from Harvard to figure it out. Zero tariffs. A Treasury secretary who promotes a strong dollar. Cut marginal tax rates to stimulate investment. And a push for deregulation (instead of tariffs) with real laws instead of executive orders. Either way, the next few months could be ugly. How we emerge will define this era.

— Andy Kessler, “The Economy Is In a Pickle,” Wall Street Journal, May 4, 2025.

It’s been a nice ride for U.S. and other world stock indices over the past four weeks. Will it continue? We may get our answer next week as the first hard aspects (Level 1 types) are due next weekend. There are other temperamental signatures unfolding as well that can trigger either an explosive breakout to new monthly highs in several markets (stocks, Gold, Bitcoin) or an intense reversal and sell-off. Or both.

The major geocosmic focus will be on the Sun/Uranus conjunction of May 17 in Taurus, the same day that Mercury in Taurus will form a somewhat rare waning square to Mars in Leo. That is quite a chaotic combination, and immediately, one may speculate what it means for President Trump, who is born under the inventive but disruptive Sun/Uranus conjunction, with a strong Mars on his Ascendant in Leo. Is he going to pull a rabbit out of the hat and announce a really big trade deal? Or will he plunge the world equity markets into another rabbit hole by torpedoing a much-needed big trade deal?

With the Sun/Uranus conjunction in Taurus, financial markets are likely to experience steep price moves within four days of next weekend. The Sun/Uranus conjunction is one of the strongest Level 1 signatures we have uncovered, whether using an orb of ten trading days for primary or half-primary cycle culminations, or within four trading days, where very sharp and sudden reversals have been noted in 83% of cases reported in Volume 3 of the Stock Market Timing series. There are many cases where both a high and a low of significance have occurred during that 4-day orb. As the stock market is currently rising into this orb of time, the expectation is for a high to be followed by a sharp decline and a low. As Uranus (and even Mercury) pertains to technology, the idea is that the NASDAQ and leading tech companies will be most affected. Last week, we already saw the sudden change announced in Sam Altman’s Open AI, where the plan to become for-profit was given up in favor of remaining a non-profit entity. This was discussed in our January and February webinars in detail for this exact period of time (May).

The week will start with a potent Full Moon in Scorpio on Monday, May 12. This is followed by the volatile Sagittarius Moon, May 13-15 (Tuesday-Thursday). The week ends with the worrisome Moon in Capricorn, right as we head into those powerful planetary signatures of Sun/Uranus (chaos), and Mercury/Mars (potentially explosive incendiary rhetoric) on May 17. Hold onto your seats. I don’t know exactly what will happen, but I suspect all eyes will be on President Trump, who is the embodiment of these types of cosmic dynamics. My guess is: the start of a new round of turbulence due to an unexpected, disturbing announcement. If I was his advisor (which clearly I am not, for he is doing everything exactly the opposite of what I would suggest based on my understanding of planetary themes and their likely outcomes), I would advise him to chill out, go golfing, stay away from the media, and avoid making any public statements, claims, or complaints.

Long-term thoughts

The U.S. benefits when the world prospers. “We should be looking to trade with the rest of the world, and we should do what we do best and they should do what they do best,” Buffett said.

— Karen Langley, “Buffett Puts Berkshire in Abel’s Hands,” Wall Street Journal, May 5, 2025

Now he has had his first hundred days in his second term. They confirm what we learned in the first administration. He goes too far. He’s a fearless man with bad judgment. He lacks internal calibration. I imagine him with an eager aide. “On this issue, Mr. President, there are two clear choices. We can make history by moving forward 6 inches, in which case we’re guaranteed to secure victory and improve America. Or we can try for 12 inches, but the opposition will be aroused, the battle long and bloody, the outcome uncertain.” Trump looks, blinks. “Twelve is bigger than 6, right? Go 12.”

— Peggy Noonan, “When Establishments Fail: Trump’s 100 Days,” Wall Street Journal, May 1, 2025

Looking further out, we are focused on June 9-24, when a slew of hard planetary aspects occur, including Jupiter square both Saturn and Neptune, the most significant planetary cycles of the year. This time band also includes the ingress of Jupiter from Gemini to Cancer, Venus square Pluto, and Mars square Uranus. This is all important for at least two reasons. First, the middle of this range is Donald Trump’s birthday and hence it reflects the planetary dynamics of the year ahead for him. This is meaningful because, in his own words, he controls the U.S. and the world, and in his view of reactions to his trade policies, everyone is lining up to “kiss my ass.” The stated intent of his globally disruptive trade policies is to create a more morally balanced trade reciprocity between the U.S. and the rest of the world. Judging by the deal worked with the UK, it doesn’t seem that a fair trade reciprocity is as important as “kissing my ass,” which the UK has now willingly performed.

Second, from the cosmic point of view, it is important to note that the current round of trade issues falls under the Jupiter (world) in Gemini (commerce) theme. Furthermore, Jupiter in Gemini is currently transiting President Trump’s natal Sun sign. That 12-year “high”  cycle ends when Jupiter moves into Cancer on June 9. It would be a very good sign if these trade deals could be completed by then (for his sake and our sake). He needs to bring home bigger agreements than just the UK and Argentina. He needs the European Union. He needs India, China, and also Japan. Can he do it by June 9? Can he do it before Mars crosses his natal Mars, on his Ascendant, squared also by transiting Uranus (June 15, one day after his birthday)? And all of this is taking place just a couple of weeks before the 90-day “grace” period that he proclaimed comes due in early July. This deadline is not good timing, IMHO.

As I see it, this process is going to get very intense. The president will be prone to reacting on his basic, primal, impulses, which are not always in the best interests of attaining his goals (which are now also comingled with our best interests and goals, whether we like it or not). This is why I think investors and traders alike need to remain careful about becoming overconfident (just yet) about the appearance of a new bullish trend for U.S. stocks. The charts look good, very good. The market cycles are beginning to look positive, as if the low of the year is in as of April 7. However, the unfolding patterns of planets in the solar system, as seen from Earth, are flashing warning signs of another impending disruption, and probably centered on the actions and reactions of the president, as well as the reactions of other world leaders to his impulses.

This doesn’t mean that he will fail. There are many reasons to believe he can pull this off if he just stays the course. But if instead he does go off the rails and fails, it won’t be Joe Biden’s fault.