Review

Job growth was stronger than expected in April despite worries over the impact of President Donald Trump’s blanket tariffs against U.S. trading partners. Nonfarm payrolls increased a seasonally adjusted 177,000 for the month, slightly below the downwardly revised 185,000 in March but above the Dow Jones estimate for 133,000.

— Jeff Cox, “U.S. Payroll Growth Totals 177,000 in April, Defying Expectations,” www.cnbc.com, May 2, 2025.

The U.S. economy contracted in the first three months of 2025, as businesses rushed to stock up on imports ahead of the Trump administration’s tariffs and consumer spending slowed. The Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product—the value of all goods and services produced across the economy—fell at a seasonally and inflation adjusted 0.3% annual rate in the first quarter. That was the first contraction since the first quarter of 2022. 

— Harriet Torry, “U.S. Economy Shrank in First Quarter as Imports Surged Ahead of Tariffs,” Wall Street Journal, April 30, 2025.

President Trump must be getting close to making major trade deals. The stock markets of the world are showing renewed signs of life after their plunge during the dual retrogrades of Mercury and Venus (”retrograde chaos” end) overlapping mid-March through April 7. This coincided with his early April “Liberation Day” announcement of dramatic new tariffs, which Bloomberg renamed “Obliteration Day.” However, by mid-April, he began walking back those stiff tariffs (except for China), announcing a 90-day pause that will come up again in early July. The markets have cheered ever since. Will they cheer as we approach closer to July?

Equity investors seem to believe the president will pull back on his next 90-day tariff threat, judging by the new 4-week high being made in most global markets. But will he? He hasn’t pulled back on threats so far before enacting them. Our call in the Forecast 2025 Book was that there would be two double-digit declines in the U.S. stock market this year, with at least one of 15-26%. The first decline into April 7 satisfied this price range. The question now (for me) is: will the next one be steeper or less steep?

In Asia and the Pacific Rim, the Australian ASX soared to a new 7-week high. Its bottom on April 7 was the lowest ASX mark since December 2023, so it’s starting to recover nicely. Japan’s Nikkei and India’s Nifty are now making 4-week highs and also recovering smartly from their multi-month lows of April 7. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index also made a new 4-week high, but its prior low was only back in December 2024. China’s Shanghai Composite exhibited a shortened inside trading week. It, too, made a multi-week low on April 7 as Mercury turned direct, and one week before, Venus did the same. It seems most equity markets made a low (or lows) around April 7 and have basically rallied since. Optimism about the future is returning, suggesting most investors believe President Trump will pull the rabbit out of the hat. But the Sun/Uranus conjunction is looming ahead on May 17, when things could go awry again. It just so happens that this same aspect, which can pertain to the concept of chaos, is also a huge factor in his natal chart.

In Europe, all four indices we track made new 4-5 week highs last week. Between April 7 and 9, each had also put in yearly lows, except the German DAX, which only fell back to its low of September 2024.

In the U.S., the DJIA, NASDAQ, and S&P all performed similarly. That is, each made a new 4-week high, which followed yearly lows made on April 7. The pattern was different in Brazil, where the Bovespa rallied into April 29 to its highest level since September 2024.

In other markets, Bitcoin also began a new cycle as of April 7-9, rising to its highest price since late February. I will have more to say about the longer-term cycles in Bitcoin in a webinar shortly, as I think the cycles picture is becoming quite clear now following our buy signal of early April.

Gold made a new all-time of 3509 the prior week, on April 22. But last week, it gave up $300, falling to a weekly low of 3209 on May 1. That’s quite a sell in one week for Gold! Silver seems to be confused as to which way it wants to go, meandering back and forth between 31.50 and 33.50. Crude Oil, on the other hand, is flashing bullish triggers with its decline to 56.39 on May 1, a successful retest (so far) of its 55.12 low made on April 9, which was its lowest price in four years. It will need to exceed 65.00 to exhibit a stronger bullish pattern. With Jupiter soon to square Neptune (its co-rulers) in mid-July, a large move up or down is indicated into this period, depending on whether prices can close above 65.00.

Short-term geocosmics

U.S. President Donald Trump has shifted blame to predecessor Joe Biden for the country’s economic decline, after America’s GDP shrank 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025.

— ABC News, “Trump Blames Biden After U.S. Economy Shrinks,” https://www.youtube.com/, May 1, 2025.

 Who are you going to believe — me or your own eyes?

— Groucho Marx

There is no shortage of news (or blame) these days, especially with President Trump at the helm and the media in constant agony from TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome), a mental bias where everything going wrong is blamed on Trump. For that matter, there is no shortage of news flashes either with the president himself or the MAGA crowd suffering from BDS (Biden Derangement Syndrome), where everything wrong in the world is due to former President Joe Biden.

Blame, or projection, is a function associated with a lower-level Gemini emotional response ( a spiritual or intellectual response, is completely different and admirable). Jupiter (exaggeration and therefore “big blame”) is currently in Gemini, which also happens to be President Trump’s Sun sign. Jupiter transiting one’s Sun sign correlates with a 12-year personal high cycle. Things usually go very well then. Therefore, he may be able to pull this self-induced crisis off after all, recusing the nation (and the world) from the chaotic drama of his first 100 days in the second term of his presidency. His gamble has been dangerous. But it can pay off if he doesn’t undermine his own plan at this stage. It’s a big “IF” you are not part of the MAGA crowd. It is certain he will pull it off successfully if you are.

Here is how I see it within the context of geocosmic studies, which is basically the universe’s way of messaging to us where we are and where we are headed. In other words, “As above, so below,” which means we are connected, like the “macro” and “micro” states of reality. We are now in the season of Taurus, the middle of spring, when things seem to be stabilizing after the raucous period of transitioning from the end of winter, or mutable Pisces, to cardinal Aries. Both the mutable and cardinal want to be active and keep moving. The difference is that the mutable wants to be acting on several fronts at once. Cardinal is focused on starting one new adventure and taking it to a height- and then leaving. But fixed signs, like Taurus, want to pause and assimilate, to think over their next move before the next mutable sign (Gemini) comes up in late May.

Thus, the excitement and drama of March and April may pause. However, looming ahead on May 17 is the Sun conjunct Uranus, a signature of disruption (even chaos, again), right as we prepare to enter the mutable sign of Gemini. In fact, this mutable sign of Gemini (starting around May 20) may be particularly wild because it starts a rather turbulent cosmic storm. Between June 9 and June 24, we enter the arena of Jupiter (exaggeration), square Saturn (doubt), and Neptune (uncertainty). It is the most prominent long-term geocosmic cycle of this year, and it midpoints right around President Trump’s birthday (June 14). That’s important because the cosmic quality of the moment at the time of one’s solar return is a portent of what is to come the next year. His next year will be the full expression of this massive geocosmic configuration. The macrocosmic signatures of chaos and turbulence meet up with the personal micro signature of chaos and disruption (and possible brilliance). And right as we head into the 90-day due date of the next tariff roll of the dice.

The best outlook here, in my opinion, is that these trade deals will be completed by May 16-19. If so, Mr. Trump will seem like a brilliant genius and a superhero for saving the planet from an economic threat/opportunity that he alone (not Biden) created. If not, expect another adventure on Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride in this experiment that could make it seem like we are living in a political amusement park. And on this ride, everything that seemed like it was going up (the stock market, the economy) could suddenly reverse and turn upside down again by July. It may all depend on how able he is to not interrupt his own path towards progress with second (and third) guesses designed to outsmart his own self.

I think an investment strategy going into this period should be based on how much one believes in the president’s ability to reduce chaos, not amplify it. Unlike many outside of MAGA nation, I think his trade plan could work out, assuming he doesn’t suddenly undermine it with some new and novel twist his id wants to initiate. With all the Uranus and Neptune signatures coming up, as well as leaving the safe but temporary domain of fixed sign Taurus for mutable sign Gemini—with Uranus about to enter it—I don’t think this is the best time to gamble with the nation’s economy and OPM (other people’s money). So, although I think the plan could work out, I am not overly optimistic that he will stick to the plan of action that he has started. And as a double Capricorn, this is what worries me today and arouses doubts about the usually powerful bullish chart signals I am seeing as the month of May begins.

I may just follow the old stock market adage: “Sell in May and Go Away.”

Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the author’s understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycles’ analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand the psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day. No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.

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