Weekly column: The Dragon's Hole and the global market

Review

“The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday that the U.S. added 911,000 fewer jobs than previously thought over the 12 months ended in March. For investors, the report strengthened the case for the Fed to take a more aggressive approach to cutting rates. Interest-rate futures traders have fully priced in a quarter-point rate cut next week and left the door open for the possibility of a half-point reduction.”

—Vicky Ge Huang, “All Three Major Stock-Market Indexes Close at Records on Hopes for Deeper Rate Cuts,” The Wall Street Journal, September 12, 2025.

All three US stock markets rallied to new all-time highs (ATH) on Friday, in expectation of rate cuts following weak job market reports during the week. This ends the bearish intermarket divergence in the equity markets and was closely replicated by the Japanese Nikkei, China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SSE), Hong Kong 50, and the tech-heavy Hang Seng, all making new ATHs.

The picture was not so bright in Europe. The UK’s FTSE was the outperformer, continuing to consolidate close to its ATH of 3 weeks ago. The German DAX, Swiss SMI, and the Euro Stoxx 50 have failed to take out prior highs.

In Asia and the Pacific Rim, the Australian Stock Index (ASX 200) formed its ATH on August 26 and appears to have reversed. India’s Nifty continues to underperform under the pressure of US tariffs. In the Americas, Argentina’s Merval continues its bearish trend, whilst the Bovespa index also rallied to a new ATH this week. I also wanted to add South Africa to the report as its JSE Top 40 has been putting in a consistent and impressive rally since the low of 2020. The index has rallied just under 49% during 2025, consistently putting in a new ATH month-on-month. Other than Russia and India, the remaining initial members of BRICS appear to be performing well and putting in new ATHs.

The precious metals are shining bright, with Gold putting in a new ATH at 3715 on September 9, and Silver rallying into Friday, and finally taking out 4300. Bitcoin and Ethereum appear to have put in their seasonal September lows early and continue their respective rallies. With rate cuts on the horizon, the Dollar is continuing to consolidate around its lows. Crude Oil has remained relatively dormant with the heavy presence of Saturn now back in Pisces (the sign ruling Oil). Even new UK sanctions or Russian Oil and Israel’s attack on Qatar have not been able to move Crude Oil. The grains look like they have formed their respective major cycle lows and are continuing their respective rallies.

Short-term geocosmics

“The incursion of Russian drones into Poland marked a dangerous new phase in Moscow’s confrontation with the West, posing a test for NATO allies and forcing them to divert more capabilities to the bloc’s eastern flank, … ‘Putin is testing us with this,’ said Gen. Carsten Breuer, Germany’s defense chief.”

—Thomas Grove, Bojan Pancevski, and Max Colchester, “Russian Drone Incursion in Poland Tests NATO Defenses, Cohesion.” The Wall Street Journal, September 11, 2025.

This has been an exceptionally intense week, marked by groundbreaking developments, escalating geopolitical tensions, and the shocking, deeply saddening assassination of Charlie Kirk, the conservative activist and commentator. We are quickly approaching the eye of the storm with the Sun’s autumn ingress into Libra on September 22, 2025 at 18:19 GMT. This is a big geocosmic event in 2025, as it will also be a Solar Eclipse in opposition to the Saturn-Neptune conjunction. Yet, the storm kicked off with last week’s Lunar Eclipse of September 7. It started last Friday, as the UK’s deputy prime minister, Angela Rayner, resigned over a tax scandal. This resulted in a large re-shuffle of the increasingly unpopular Labour cabinet after markets had closed. During the week, news broke of Israel attempting to kill the Hamas leadership by attacking yet another sovereign nation. This was followed by news of Russian drones entering Polish airspace. Violent protests broke out in Nepal, as their parliament was set on fire, resulting in the resignation of the Prime Minister. The former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced to a 27-year prison sentence. The British Ambassador to Washington was removed over Epstein emails.

This came while astrologer, Adam Sommer, shared a fascinating blog post titled, “Eclipse Families & Dragon Hoards,” which you can read on his website: https://kosmognosis.substack.com. Adam links Saros eclipse cycles to historic financial upheavals, noting how prior occurrences of the current eclipse cycle align with 1989, 2007, and most significantly August 1971, when Nixon ended the gold standard. As he puts it, “Dragons create eclipses … for the West, dragons relate to chaos and destruction…for the East they create harmony and prosperity— [and for both] they hoard gold!” He highlights the charged period between a lunar and solar eclipse—which he terms the “Dragon Hole”—as a window of extraordinary intensity, where global markets and geopolitics may shift dramatically. Just as the 1971 eclipse coincided with the birth of fiat currency, he suggests the current Dragon Hole could mark another turning point, with Gold (and Bitcoin) leading a flight from the Dollar toward new ATHs.

We are in the midst of a charged period between eclipses, a time when both markets and geopolitics can move with unusual intensity. Yet, cycles always turn, and balance always follows. So, while the weeks ahead may feel stormy, it’s also worth stepping back, keeping perspective, and remembering that even in turbulent times there is room for clarity, calm—and perhaps a smile.

As the Persian poet Saadi, reminds us:

“However long the night, the dawn will break.

However heavy the grief, joy will return.”