Weekly column: Interconnected crises in Middle East conflict energy and global debt

Review

The U.S. economy’s shock absorbers are worn. That could make for a bumpy ride if recent investor anxiety worsens.

—Spencer Jakab, “Borrowing Costs’ Double Whammy Boosts Recession Odds,” The Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2026.

Rising bond yields are causing angst in government circles (and ill-disguised glee in financial media circles, as a new sensation). As with some other areas of economics, the current narrative tends to look at the world with one eye closed. That higher bond yields increase government borrowers’ costs is a concern—but higher bond yields benefit investors.

—Dr. Paul Donovan, “Will No One Think of the Bondholders?” UBS Weekly Blog, October 9, 2026.

In normal circumstances, government bonds act as a shock absorber when the economy begins to weaken. Historically, investors turned to the safety of Treasuries as yields declined and the cost of borrowing fell for households and businesses. This time, however, Treasury yields are already close to 25-year highs, while the additional interest demanded on corporate debt is also rising. Consumers and companies therefore face a double burden of persistently high government borrowing rates alongside widening credit spreads. Instead of cushioning the economy from a downturn, the bond market risks magnifying it by making refinancing more expensive, discouraging investment and increasing the likelihood of recession. However, at the same time, the higher yields may be cheered by many individuals who welcome the increase in investment income for lending their money to institutions and governments that need the cash.

For now, the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 are shrugging off the worries with new all-time highs (ATHs) last week. However, the bearish intermarket divergence with the Dow continues to grow and is now accompanied by bearish oscillator divergence in the CCI as well. These are strong technical indicators for crest formations. We also have the geocosmics supporting this, with Venus retrograde.

Many global equity markets across Europe, Asia, the Pacific, and Latin America have been declining. One market that found a bid was Japan, and it is still below its June ATH. Rising debt costs and energy prices are starting to show themselves across the global markets. With the prospect of higher yields, the U.S. Dollar continues to rise, placing further pressure on precious metals, with both Gold and Silver hitting new multi-week lows last Wednesday through early Thursday before a modest rally into Friday. Those lows are within three trading days of last week’s Venus retrograde station, which could prove to be important as Gold is in the time band for a longer-term cycle trough.

We had a great crypto webinar yesterday, reviewing our outlook at an important time for this asset class. If you are investing in crypto, I would highly recommend getting the recording, which is available on our website. It laid out our outlook, price targets, and upcoming opportunities. See the announcements below.

Short-term geocosmics

Over the past week, we have had two important geocosmic signatures: Venus stationed retrograde on October 3, and the Sun opposed Saturn the following day. Both signatures form part of the October 2-5 and 9-12 critical reversal dates (CRDs). With new ATHs forming in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ last Tuesday, we have to be open to the prospect that an important crest may have just formed. After all, as noted in Forecast 2026, “In terms of stock markets, Venus retrograde and direct stations are two of the most consistent correlations to primary and greater cycles in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Within an orb of 12 trading days, the Venus retrograde station period has an 80% correlation with primary or greater cycles.”

This weekend, on October 10. Venus forms a square aspect with Mars. As the planets of peace and war forms this hard aspect, it can spell trouble for ongoing conflicts and add to concerns about the cost-of-living crisis and Crude Oil prices.

Longer-term thoughts and opinion

As we begin a new Venus retrograde cycle through Scorpio and Libra, it is worth remembering that Venus returns to the same region of the zodiac during its retrograde period every eight years. These returns often revive familiar themes, relationships, and unresolved questions. I would encourage you to reflect on what was happening in your own life eight years ago and consider whether a similar pattern is now re-emerging.

I experienced a remarkable example of this last Saturday, as Venus stationed retrograde. I was attending a wedding when I realized that, at the previous Venus retrograde station eight years earlier, I had attended the wedding of the bride’s sister.

This recurrence of themes and cycles is central to forecasting. By studying previous Venus retrograde cycles in Scorpio and Libra, we can identify patterns that may return under the present cycle. This was the approach I used when writing the Venus Retrograde Period in 2026 chapter of Forecast 2026.

In financial markets, Venus retrograde periods often coincide with a difficult and unpredictable monetary or fiscal environment. It is not unusual to see central banks or government leadership make major policy changes, from accommodative to tightening, or vice versa. Thus, trends that were up or down prior to the retrograde will frequently reverse during this time. With Scorpio ruling over debt and Venus ruling money, it should also come as no surprise to find that significant cyclical reversals tend to take place during this signature. The last time Venus was retrograde in Scorpio/Libra was October 5–November 16, 2018. The 18-year trough in U.S. T-Notes and U.K. 10-year Gilts formed on October 8th and 10th, 2018, respectively.

With rising yields, global bond markets are under considerable strain, with falling prices that have not been seen since 2007 in T-Notes, and the lowest price I can see on my chart for the UK Gilts. Is this a sign that cracks are starting to appear within the financial system, or is it setting up for a great buying opportunity, at least in the short term?

As I also wrote in Forecast 2026:

Another striking theme is the prominence of crude oil and the energy sector. In 1978, the Iranian Revolution redirected global attention to oil supplies, sending prices soaring; in 2010, BP’s settlement over the Deepwater Horizon disaster reshaped conversations about corporate accountability and environmental costs; and in 2018, the French Yellow Vest protests, initially sparked by rising fuel prices, evolved into a national crisis.

And now France is again immersed in huge national protests, this time against the backdrop of a deepening debt and budget crisis.

We now find ourselves in the midst of another global oil crisis. Higher energy prices are intensifying inflationary pressures, pushing bond yields higher and contributing to the collapse in bond prices. Whilst I did not pick up on this theme at the time of writing, the energy crisis and the turmoil in the bond markets are not separate events, but interconnected expressions of the same instability.

This leads me to the third forecast made, which can be seen as the cause of the prior two forecasts:

One of the most consistent themes that re-emerges is conflict and/or peace negotiations involving Israel during these retrogrades. In 1962, global anxieties were heightened by Cold War tensions, but in subsequent cycles—1978, 1986, 1994, 2002, 2010, and again in 2018—we repeatedly see Israel at the forefront of world news. Whether in the form of violent escalations or peace talks. We have seen glimpses of light, like the Egypt-Israel peace talks (1978) or the Israel-Jordan Peace treaty (1994). We have even had Nobel Peace Prizes awarded to Yitzhak Rabin, Shimon Peres, and Yasser Arafat, during the Venus retrograde cycle of 1994. However, all the cycles also include an intensification of violence.

With the benefit of hindsight, we can see how closely these three themes describe the present circumstances. The war involving Israel, the United States, and Iran has escalated across the Middle East, contributing to a global energy crisis. Spiraling fuel costs are fueling inflation, driving yields higher and causing bond prices to fall sharply. Conflict, oil, inflation, debt, and monetary instability have once again become intertwined.

In closing this week’s column, I wish to highlight the concentration of geocosmic activity around mid-November, echoing the theme of last year’s Liberation Day:

Pay particular attention to the period ending the Venus retrograde around November 13, 2026 (with an orb of 1 week), as we have several important geocosmic events taking place all together. The final Mercury retrograde of 2026 will also end on the same day. I’m highlighting this as we had both planets end their retrogrades within a week of one another in early April 2025, which marked a significant low for many assets.

As the saying often attributed to Mark Twain goes, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”