COT report – October 09, 2026

Mohamad Gharib Independent Analyst

Key COT extremes and narrative takeaways

Highlights the six highest and two lowest Commercial COT Index readings, with Large Speculator positioning, weekly positioning changes, and price performance providing context for each

extreme

Euro FX — 100%: Commercial positioning is at the highest level of its 26-week range. Large Speculators are net short at −99,332 contracts, with speculative net positioning shifted lower by

36,076 contracts. Price declined 0.51%.

Australian Dollar — 100%: Commercial positioning is at the highest level of its 26-week range. Large Speculators are net short at −98,588 contracts, with speculative net positioning shifted

lower by 35,349 contracts. Price increased 0.40%.

Mexican Peso — 100%: Commercial positioning is at the highest level of its 26-week range. Large Speculators are net long at +10,701 contracts, with speculative net positioning shifted lower by

41,701 contracts. Price declined 1.30%.

Natural Gas — 100%: Commercial positioning is at the highest level of its 26-week range. Large Speculators are net short at −236,439 contracts, with speculative net positioning shifted lower by

5,419 contracts. Price increased 5.43%.

Palladium — 100%: Commercial positioning is at the highest level of its 26-week range. Large Speculators are net short at −7,017 contracts, with speculative net positioning shifted lower by

1,192 contracts. Price declined 1.96%.

British Pound — 86%: Commercial positioning is near the upper end of its 26-week range. Large Speculators are net short at −97,611 contracts, with speculative net positioning shifted lower by

6,536 contracts. Price declined 0.07%.

Japanese Yen — 22%: Commercial positioning is at the lower end of its 26-week range. Large Speculators are net long at +62,325 contracts, with speculative net positioning improved by 6,885

contracts. Price declined 0.37%.

Gasoline — 12%: Commercial positioning is at the lower end of its 26-week range. Large Speculators are net long at +70,531 contracts, with speculative net positioning improved by 5,300

contracts. Price declined 1.17%.

ASSET	PRICE CHG	SPEC. NET	SPEC. NET CHG	COMM. NET	COMM. NET CHG	SMALL NET	OPEN INTEREST	OI CHG	COT INDEX	POSITIONING
Dollar Index	+0.36%	+12,011	+130	-14,271	-397	+2,260	51,095	+6%	45%	Bullish (Net Long) – Improving
Euro FX	-0.51%	-99,332	-36,076	+72,024	+31,447	+27,308	870,291	+2%	100%	Bearish (Net Short) – Weakening
Swiss Franc	-0.29%	-23,740	+877	+37,286	-2,854	-13,546	137,185	+2%	26%	Bearish (Net Short) – Improving
British Pound	-0.07%	-97,611	-6,536	+111,867	+10,985	-14,256	265,890	+6%	86%	Bearish (Net Short) – Weakening
Japanese Yen	-0.37%	+62,325	+6,885	-61,749	-5,764	-576	368,138	+2%	22%	Bullish (Net Long) – Improving
Canadian Dollar	-0.07%	-90,163	-11,492	+103,502	+13,938	-13,339	371,048	+7%	51%	Bearish (Net Short) – Weakening
Australian Dollar	+0.40%	-98,588	-35,349	+85,092	+38,744	+13,496	328,682	+6%	100%	Bearish (Net Short) – Weakening
New Zealand Dollar	-0.07%	-29,346	-12,031	+31,380	+12,386	-2,034	129,883	+13%	53%	Bearish (Net Short) – Weakening
Mexican Peso	-1.30%	+10,701	-41,701	-12,701	+41,896	+2,000	290,507	+6%	100%	Bullish (Net Long) – Weakening
Crude Oil (WTI)	+0.44%	+99,060	-10,403	-126,458	+16,160	+27,398	1,889,422	+1%	74%	Bullish (Net Long) – Weakening
Gasoline	-1.17%	+70,531	+5,300	-84,050	-5,861	+13,519	348,700	+2%	12%	Bullish (Net Long) – Improving
Heating Oil	+2.64%	+10,995	-1,096	-29,756	+547	+18,761	242,852	+2%	47%	Bullish (Net Long) – Weakening
Natural Gas	+5.43%	-236,439	-5,419	+219,847	+6,344	+16,592	1,815,990	+2%	100%	Bearish (Net Short) – Weakening
Gold	+1.16%	+210,335	-8,297	-244,527	+6,440	+34,192	396,109	-3%	37%	Bullish (Net Long) – Weakening
Silver	+0.66%	+23,153	+1,070	-41,592	-1,582	+18,439	105,130	-2%	57%	Bullish (Net Long) – Improving
Platinum	-0.67%	+13,968	+479	-17,786	-738	+3,818	65,868	+3%	83%	Bullish (Net Long) – Improving
Palladium	-1.96%	-7,017	-1,192	+5,788	+1,091	+1,229	21,060	+13%	100%	Bearish (Net Short) – Weakening
Copper	+2.01%	+69,434	-15,977	-77,923	+16,918	+8,489	304,033	+1%	66%	Bullish (Net Long) – Weakening

Author

Mohamad Gharib

Independent Analyst

Mohamad Gharib is a Financial Markets Analyst and Quantitative Researcher with more than 18 years of experience in financial markets, including 15 years as an FX Quant Trader.

AUD/USD bulls regain control above 0.6950 amid USD retreat

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the previous day's bounce from the weekly low, aiming for 0.7000 in Asia on Friday. The overnight pullback in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar below an 18-month high, which in turn offers some support to the pair. Meanwhile, hawkish RBA expectations also keep the major underpinned.

USD/JPY holds gains near 158.00 after Japan's weak Household Spending data

USD/JPY clings to gains around 158.00 after data showed on Friday that Japan's Household Spending fell for the ninth straight month, undermining the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains depressed as the overnight fall in US bond yields counters a hawkish Fed and geopolitical uncertainties, could cap any downside in the pair.

Gold remains range-bound below $4,200

Gold has given up some ground after an initial bullish attempt to reach weekly highs, returning to below the $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The US Dollar’s strong upside momentum, combined with rising US Treasury yields across the curve, seems to keep further gains in the yellow metal under scrutiny.

Week ahead: US CPI, France’s budget crisis and Q3 earnings to set the market tone

The US dollar held relatively strong this week, despite the disappointing US jobs report on October 2, which further decreased the probability of a back-to-back rate hike by the Fed at the upcoming gathering on October 28.

CFTC Report: Euro and Aussie shorts expand amid diverging signals

The week in one sentence: Euro and Australian Dollar shorts deepened in the week to October 6, while Yen longs rebuilt. In addition, Coffee buying continued, and Gold exposure remained elevated despite another price decline. Speculators turned more negative on the Euro, increasing the net exposure to around 99.3K contracts.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?