Weekly column: Did Mercury retrograde cause the recent sell-off?

Review 

Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the average rate on a 30-year loan tumbled to 6.47%, the lowest level in more than a year. While that is down from a peak of 7.79% in the fall, it remains sharply higher than the pandemic-era lows of just 3%.

—Megan Henney, “Home Prices Are Finally Starting to Fall,” www.foxbusiness.com, August 9, 2024.

Stock markets found a ground of support on Monday, August 5, following their stunning sell-off since the highs of July 11-18 when Mars, Uranus, and Algol all conjoined in late Taurus, and secondary highs of July 31. In typical Mercury retrograde fashion, many indices then reversed on August 5. They rallied into Friday’s Libra Moon (a solar/lunar reversal date) to gain back approximately 50% of their decline from the prior week’s plunge.

In Asia and the Pacific Rim, the most spectacular decline into August 5 was in Japan, where the Nikkei fell 26.5% from its all-time high of July 11 at 42,426 to its low of 31,156. By Friday, it was back up to 35,671. China and Hong Kong also got hit hard with new multi-month lows. The Shanghai Composite dropped to 2,845 on August 6, its lowest mark in six months. Sell-offs were also noted in Australia and India, but they were not as dramatic as in Japan or China.

In Europe, the Netherlands AEX fell 11.4% and the German DAX 9.9% last Monday before recovering the rest of the week. London’s FTSE and Zurich’s SMI indices also bottomed early last week, though the decline was less severe than in the Netherlands and Germany.

In the U.S., all three major indices completed at least a temporary sell-off on Monday, August 5. The more substantial was in the NASDAQ, which dropped over 17% from its all-time high of July 11. The S&P declined 10.5%, while the DJIA lost only about 7%. In fact, only the NASDAQ and Nikkei have attained our 16-26% declines projected for a 4-year cycle low so far, suggesting there is yet another decline to be seen by November.

The Trickster (Mercury retrograde) also registered sell-offs and weekly lows in Gold, Crude Oil, Bitcoin, and Ethereum. Bitcoin fell to a low of 49,495, a loss of 33% from its all-time high on March 14, and within our target range of 25-50% for the 24-month cycle low due this year. Like stocks, each bounced back with a rally into Friday. Whether it is a corrective rally or the start of a new impulse wave remains to be seen. However, cycles still hold out the possibility of another decline ahead, maybe quickly, maybe into November.

Short-term geocosmics

You will never reach your destination if you stop and throw stones at every dog that barks.”

—Winston Churchill’s quotation posted on ‘X,’ August 9, 2024.

Was that the 4-year cycle low in stocks last Monday, August 5, as Mercury turned retrograde? Anything is possible, and the Trickster (Mercury retrograde) has a modest correlation with primary cycles (slightly less than 60% frequency when given an 8-day orb). It could have also coincided with the double top on July 31 (three trading days before August 5) to the primary cycle crest that occurred July 11-18 in the U.S. markets. But in most cases, we see markets flip back and forth every 1-4 trading days during the Trickster’s reign.

Furthermore, geocosmic reversal signatures are approaching that have even stronger correlations to primary and greater cycles than Mercury retrograde. In fact, the longest planetary cycle of the year will have its first of three passages on August 19. This is when Jupiter will enter its first square to Saturn. This aspect also has a 60% correlation to primary cycles, but more importantly, these primary cycles are also 50-week or greater cycles within 10 trading days. It is very possible that the double top highs of mid-July and July 31 were the crests of the 4-year cycle. If so, there is another swing down below the low of August 5 looming ahead. A break of that low may create more panic than what was just witnessed.

Two upcoming periods stand out shortly that have powerful geocosmic signatures of reversals, even stronger than Mercury retrograde. The first is August 14-19, which, in addition to the first passage of Jupiter square Saturn, also finds Mars (with Jupiter) square Saturn, Venus square Jupiter, and Venus is also in opposition to Saturn, and then the Sun square Uranus. The Mars/Saturn square and Sun/Uranus square each have historical frequencies of 80 and 82%, respectively, to reversals in primary cycles within an orb of 10 trading days, often within only three. The primary cycle is more likely to be a trough, although it’s possible it could be an early crest in a new primary cycle that would then be down for the next 10-20 weeks.

The second geocosmic hotspot arrives during the Labor Day holiday weekend of August 30-September 4 when Uranus turns retrograde—and shortly after Mercury turns direct. When two planets as skittish as Mercury and Uranus change directions in close proximity to one another, chaos and mini-panics can ensue. Additionally, the historical frequency of primary cycles unfolding during a Uranus retrograde period is 77%. The takeaway from the cosmos is that a four-year stock market cycle low could happen by early September, especially if Monday, August 5’s lows are taken out before new 2-week or greater highs form first.

Longer-term thoughts: The US election

This is still Mr. Trump’s election to lose but, as we learned in 2020, he’s more than capable of doing it.

—The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board, “Will Donald Trump Blow Another Election?” www.wsj.com/opinion, August 7, 2024.

Yesterday, I received the following email from one of my most avid readers of the annual Forecast books for the past, well, many years:

Do you remember you wrote this in the 2023 Forecast book? “Furthermore, don’t be surprised (yes, I know it’s Uranus we are talking about) if a female is elected to a very high office in 2024, as Uranus trines the Moon in this (the July 2 U.S.) chart. In other words, in the spirit of Uranus, the “glass ceiling” can be broken. If one of the parties nominates a female presidential candidate, the odds favor that party in 2024. With Uranus part of a grand earth trine, it can truly be a new world for the U.S., a revival of its standing in the world, and a renaissance in science, technology, communications, and banking.”

Now, before I get a dumpster-load of nasty emails alleging I have a liberal/progressive bias, let me state that this forecast had (has) nothing to do with a political bias and everything to do with ascertaining the correct chart of the U.S. In fact, it was written in October 2022 and published in December 2022. It was based on the chart of the approximate time that the vote for independence was completed, on July 2, 1776, sometime just before noon, in Philadelphia. The news of the vote was not delivered to General George Washington until July 4, 1776, which then started the Revolutionary War (source: David McCullough’s book, “1776″).

One of the major differences between these two charts is the position of the Moon. In the July 4 chart, the nation’s founding Moon is in Aquarius, somewhere between 17-27°. The July 2 chart shows 25° Capricorn, conjoining Pluto at 27° Capricorn. On Election Day, November 5, 2024, Uranus will be positioned at 25° Taurus, forming an exact trine (favorable for popularity and sudden favorable changes in life). Uranus also rules technology and science. In Taurus, it pertains to banking, and as it nears Gemini, it relates to communications. Also, the Moon in a nation’s chart is associated with issues involving women in the nation—their movements and status.

Another factor of interest is that the progressed Moon in the chart of Kamala Harris at the time of the election will be in 14° Cancer, within the orb, but separating from the U.S. natal Sun of 11-13° Cancer, depending on which U.S. birthdate is accurate. This means that her height of popularity and enthusiasm may be 1-3 months before the election. Will it still be close enough to carry her to victory on Election Day when transiting Jupiter will be firmly conjunct Donald Trump’s natal Sun and Uranus, trine his natal Jupiter (luck and popularity)? In Harris’ chart, transiting Jupiter will still be in her natal 12th house and “close to” the ascendant, which suggests “close to” victory. It is 4° away. Is that orb “close enough?”

When it was Donald Trump versus Joe Biden, the outcome looked fairly certain in favor of Trump via geocosmic patterns. Now, it is not so certain for Trump against Harris. Both have strong geocosmic arguments supporting victory. As a result, and on a personal note, I hope they agree to at least two debates—plus a Vice Presidential debate—so the American public can witness how each responds to challenging questions and to one another in person. I think both candidates need this to convince those still on the margins (many of the independents now) who can tilt the election one way or the other.