Veterans day – Mixed market

USD: Dec '25 is Up at 99.485.  

Energies: Dec '25 Crude is Down at 60.24.

Financials: The Dec '25 30 Year T-Bond is Lower by 2 ticks and trading at 117.14.

Indices: The Dec '25 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 96 ticks Higher and trading at 6896.00.

Gold: The Dec'25 Gold contract is trading Up at 4133.30.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market.  The USD is Up and Crude is Down which is normal, and the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Lower which is correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Up.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Asia traded Mixed.   Currently Europe is trading Mixed.

Possible challenges to traders                                              

• FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 9:20 AM EST.  Major.
• FOMC Member Paulson Speaks at 10 AM EST. Major.
• FOMC Member Waller Speaks at 10:25 AM EST. Major.
• FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 12:15 PM EST. Major.
• FOMC Member Miran Speaks at 12:30 PM EST. Major.
• 10 Year Bond Auction Starts at 1 PM EST. Major.
• FOMC Member Collins Speaks at 4 PM EST. not Major.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT).  They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT climbed Higher at around 8 AM EST with no news to speak of.   The Dow dived Lower at around the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT climbed Higher at around 8 AM EST and the Dow dived Lower at around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Long opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 ticks per contract on this trade.   Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for ZT is now Dec '25 and the Dow is now Dec '25.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of BarCharts

ZT -Dec 25 - 11/11/25

Dow - Dec 2025- 11/11/25

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Neutral or Mixed bias and the markets didn't disappoint.  The Dow and S&P advanced however the Nasdaq dropped 59 points.  All-in-all a Mixed Day.  Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market, and our bias is to the Upside.

Could this change? Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

Well Veterans Day came and went and it appears the Dow moved by over 500 points Higher, the Nasdaq dropped 59.  Today should be Fed Speak Day as we have 5 FOMC members speaking and of course we know absolutely nothing on what they say.  But as in all things only time will tell.  Want to learn Market Correlation and determine market direction hours before the Opening Bell?