The USDTRY pair hit new record high at 4.9736 today in extension of previous day's strong rally, as President Erdogan's comments that interest rates will fall, shook lira and sparked fresh bearish acceleration. Corrective phase from 4.9273 to 4.4473 has been fully retraced, opening way towards psychological 5.00 barrier which was approached on today's spike to 4.9736. Fresh negative sentiment is building up for final break through 5.00, which could see extension towards projections at 5.0406 (Fibo 123.6%) and 5.1107 (Fibo 138.2%), with stronger acceleration expected if CBRT fails to raise interest rates on 24 July policy meeting. Meanwhile, the pair may show hesitation ahead of key barrier, with dips to be ideally contained by former consolidation high at 4.7754 (19 June).
Res: 4.9273; 4.9736; 5.0000; 5.0406
Sup: 4.7830; 4.7754; 4.7440; 4.6951
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