Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD awaits acceptance above $5,200 and US PPI data

Gold is testing bearish commitments once again at the $5,200 level early Friday, looking to close the week over 1.50% higher. However, buyers await the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for fresh trading impetus.   

Gold stays supported amid risk aversion

Despite pausing the recent rebound, Gold continues to find buyers due to impending US tariff uncertainty, a lack of breakthrough in the US-Iran nuclear talks and worries over lofty tech valuations.

The US trade policy once again appears erratic, with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer noting earlier in the week that the US tariff rate for some countries will rise to 15% or higher from the newly imposed 10%, without revealing any further specific details.

Meanwhile, Oman's Foreign Minister, who was also involved in the third round of Geneva talks, said:  "We have concluded the day with significant progress in the negotiations between the United States and Iran. We will resume them soon, after consultations in the respective capitals. Technical-level talks will take place next week.”

Nevertheless, investors remained wary over a deal being reached next week amid renewed concerns about lofty valuations of leading technology companies, especially after artificial intelligence (AI) chipmaker Nvidia reported blowout quarterly earnings report.

These fundamental factors continue to offer little support to the US Dollar (USD) as expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates at least twice this year remain a drag.

Looking ahead, it remains to be seen if Gold regains upside traction, with the end-of-the-month flows in play. The US PPI inflation data and Fedspeak could also offer fresh hints on the US central bank’s rate outlook, significantly impacting the non-yielding Gold.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The near-term bias stays bullish as spot holds above the 21-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which both trend higher above the rising 100- and 200-day SMAs, reinforcing an established uptrend. Price is also trading above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $5,141.05 measured from the $4,401.99 low to the $5,597.89 high, indicating that buyers are defending a relatively shallow correction within the broader move. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 59, keeping momentum positive without signaling overbought conditions.

Immediate support emerges at the 50.0% retracement at $4,999.94, ahead of the 38.2% level at $4,858.82, where the rising 50-day SMA approaches to reinforce this zone on deeper pullbacks. The 21-day SMA near $5,009 offers closer dynamic support just above that Fibonacci cluster and would need to give way to suggest weakening bullish pressure. On the upside, initial resistance aligns with the recent swing area around $5,340, close to the 78.6% retracement at $5,341.96, followed by the $5,598 region, where the prior high caps the broader trend. A daily close above $5,342 would open the way for a retest of the all-time high, while a break below $5,000 would shift focus back toward the $4,860 support band.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)