USDCAD Forecast: Canadian dollar higher as risk appetite returns after US election

The Canadian dollar has posted gains in the Wednesday session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3080, down 0.33% on the day. On the release front, Canada releases Ivey PMI, which is expected to improve to 50.9 points. There are no major U.S releases on the schedule. On Thursday, Canada releases Housing Starts. In the U.S, the Federal Reserve will set the benchmark rate and release a rate statement. We’ll also get a look at unemployment claims.

Investors expressed relief that the uncertainty over the U.S mid-term elections is over, with both the Republicans and  Democrats able to point to a victory of sorts. The markets were pleased that President Trump did not suffer a stinging defeat. Had the Democrats taken back both houses of Congress, Trump would have been a lame duck for the next two years, and he would have had great difficulty passing any further market-friendly reforms. The mixed results have improved risk appetite, and the Canadian dollar has responded with gains on Wednesday.

Participation was high in the mid-term elections on Tuesday, and voters rendered a split-decision. The Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives for the first time since 2010, but the Republicans maintained control of the Senate, and have increased their majority. The results are a setback for President Trump, as the Democrats will be in a stronger position to derail Trump’s plans to boost fiscal stimulus and lower taxes.

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USD/CAD Fundamentals

• 10:00 Canadian Ivey PMI. Estimate 50.9

• 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 2.0M

• 13:01 US 30-year Bond Auction

• 15:00 US Consumer Credit. Estimate 15.7B

• 8:15 Canadian Housing Starts. Estimate 199K

• 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 214K

• 14:00 US FOMC Statement

• 14:00 US Federal Funds Rate. Estimate <2.25%

Open: 1.3124 High: 1.3159 Low: 1.3073 Close: 1.3080

USD/CAD Technical

USD/CAD posted small losses in the Asian session. The pair moved higher early in European trade, but has reversed directions and moved lower.

• 1.2970 is providing support

• 1.3099 is the next resistance line

• Current range: 1.2970 to 1.3099

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.2970, 1.2831 and 1.2733

• Above: 1.3099, 1.3198, 1.3292 and 1.3383