USD remains weak, EUR weaker

Peter Iosif, ACA, MBA IronFX

USD remains subdued in the FX market

The US dollar remained at low levels for the month. Across the Atlantic, violent protests in France weighed on EUR as the political uncertainty intensifies given the elections in April 2027. The GBP gained in the past week as UK GDP rates showed a faster growth for UK economy. The coming week may be more easy-going given the low number of US high-impact financial releases, and the greenback may ease its grip on the FX market. Also, we expect the market’s focus is expected to shift towards fundamentals and a possible enhancement of the market’s expectations for the Fed to hike rates could provide some support for the USD.

Nasdaq recovers some of last week’s losses

US stock market indexes regained some of last week’s losses, with key earnings reports scheduled to be released during the week, amid mounting pressure on the AI trades. Earnings from US mega cap companies including SpaceX, Tesla, Meta Platforms and IBM this week are expected to test investor confidence. A possible recovery in the market sentiment could lift US equities and vice versa.

Oil edges lower after last week’s rally

Oil retreated from a five-month high as traders weighed an intensification of tensions in the Gulf region against signs that supply from the area was holding near pre-war levels. Also, oil prices slipped in today’s Asian session, as investors also took into account that US President Trump waived sanctions and tariffs on Russia oil that could allow for increase of supplies in the internation oil market.

Other highlights for today

In today’s American session, the calendar seems to be empty. In tomorrow’s Asian session, we get from China PBoC’s interest rate decision, and later in the European session we get Germany’s September PPI rates, UK’s August employment data and Germany’s October ZEW indicators.

As for the rest of the week

On Wednesday we get Japan’s trade data, UK’s and Canada’s CPI rates all for September. On Thursday we get New Zealand’s Q3 CPI rates, from Turkey CBTs’ interest rate decision and Canada’s September PPI rates. On Friday we note the release of October’s preliminary PMI figures for Japan, Australia, Germany, France, the Euro Zone, the UK and the US, while we also note the release of Japan’s September CPI rates, UK’s September retail sales, Canada’s August retail sales, and the US UoM October Sentiment.

Charts to keep an eye out

XAU/USD maintained a tight rangebound motion remaining in the midst of the R1 and the S1. We maintain our sideways bias for the precious metal’s price as long as it respects the prementioned levels. The RSI indicator remains just below the reading of 50, implying a slight bearish predisposition of the market for gold’s price, yet, nothing convincing yet. Should the bears take over, we may see gold’s price breaking below the below our 3960 (S1) support level, and start aiming for the 3600 (S2) support line. Should the bulls be in charge, we may see gold’s price breaking above the 4275 (R1) resistance line, aiming for the 4550 (R2) level.

WTI edged lower in today’s Asian session, yet remained well between the 94.30 (S1) support line and the 101.00 (R1) resistance line. Given that the upward trendline guiding the commodity’s price remains intact we maintain our bullish outlook. Should the bulls maintain control, we may see WTI’s price action breaking the 101.00 (R1) resistance line, opening the gates for the 108.85 (R2) resistance level. Lastly, for a bearish outlook we would require a break below the prementioned upward trendline signalling an interruption of the upward movement and WTI’s price to continue its journey southwards by breaking the 94.30 (S1) support level with the next possible target for the bears being our 87.55 (S2) support level.

Calendar follows

XAU/USD Cash daily chart

Support: 3960 (S1), 3600 (S2), 3250 (S3).
Resistance: 4275 (R1), 4550 (R2), 4890 (R3).

WTI Cash daily chart

Support: 94.30 (S1), 87.55 (S2), 82.00 (S3).
Resistance: 101.00 (R1), 108.85 (R2), 114.00 (R3).

Author

Peter Iosif, ACA, MBA

IronFX

Mr. Iosif joined IronFX in 2017 as part of the sales force. His high level of competence and expertise enabled him to climb up the company ladder quickly and move to the IronFX Strategy team as a Research Analyst. Mr.

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