Inflation tracker: Confirmed disinflation in the major advanced economies

BNP Paribas Team BNP Paribas

In January, inflation fell in the United States, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom and Japan. The United Kingdom still has the highest inflation rate, ahead of the United States. The Eurozone followed, with Japan recording the lowest inflation rate. Core and wage trends are moderating overall, with this trend reinforced by the anchoring of inflation expectations.

In the United States, inflation (CPI) fell in January (-0.3 pp to 2.4% y/y)

Core inflation also moderated (-0.1pp m/m to 2.5%). Wages are gradually continuing to decelerate (page 22) and one-year household inflation expectations (page 16) are continuing to fall sharply (3.3% in February 2026, compared with 6.6% in May 2025). However, five-year inflation expectations remain historically high. At the same time, the price pressure index is rising slightly (page 14) and producer prices remain dynamic (+3% y/y in December). All of this supports the scenario of persistently higher inflation in the United States than in the Eurozone.

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BNP Paribas Team

BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas Economic Research Department is a worldwide function, part of Corporate and Investment Banking, at the service of both the Bank and its customers.

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