USD/JPY temporary in equilibrium: Multiple factors in focus

USD/JPY held near 163.50 on Thursday, with the yen retreating slightly after strengthening in the previous session. The currency had been supported by a broader dollar decline following the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged.

However, three FOMC members voted in favour of a rate hike, and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh stressed that the pause should not be interpreted as a rejection of further policy tightening. Future decisions will continue to be data-dependent.

The Bank of Japan is also expected to keep rates unchanged on Friday but is likely to signal that further hikes remain possible to contain the yen's decline. Verbal interventions from Japanese authorities have so far provided little relief, and the BOJ has offered no clear guidance on the timing of its next move.

Geopolitical tensions have once again intensified, with media reports indicating that the United States has resumed airstrikes on Iran following attacks on American forces in the region.

Technical analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 163.60 level, currently extending between 163.20 and 163.89. A move higher towards 163.60 is expected, with scope for the trend to extend to 164.15 and then to 164.85. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero but pointing downwards, indicating the potential for short-term consolidation before further upside.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has completed a downward move to the 163.20 level. A move higher towards at least 163.60 is expected next. A breakout above this level would open the way for a continuation towards 164.15. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and pointing upwards towards 80, indicating short-term bullish momentum.

Conclusion

USD/JPY is trading in a narrow range as markets digest the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady, despite three dissenting votes and Chairman Warsh's insistence that the pause does not signal the end of tightening. The dollar's modest decline after the announcement provided some relief for the yen, although the currency remains vulnerable. Attention now turns to the Bank of Japan's policy meeting on Friday, where rates are expected to be left unchanged but with hawkish signals to support the currency. Geopolitical risks have re-emerged following reports of renewed US airstrikes on Iran. Technically, the pair appears poised for further upside towards 163.60 and beyond, with the BOJ's guidance and intervention risks likely to determine the near-term direction.