USD/JPY outlook: Hit by latest tariff threats and hotter than expected Japan's inflation

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

USD/JPY

USDJPY fell further on Friday, driven by the latest comments from President Trump about 25% tariff on Apple phones that were manufactured abroad and Japan’s inflation above forecasts in April that may question BOJ’s intentions to proceed with policy tightening.

The pair is trading at two-week low in early US session on Friday, after the latest drop further weakened near-term structure.

Important Fibo support at 143.23 (61.8% of 139.88/148.64 has been taken out, with weekly close below this level to add to negative stance (MA’s turned to full bearish setup, 14-d momentum remains below the centreline and falling and thickening daily cloud continues to weigh).

Completion of reversal pattern on weekly chart also contributes to bearish outlook.

Bears pressure target at 142.35 (May 6 trough) and eye a higher base at 141.95 (late Apr higher base / Fibo 76.4%) violation of which to unmask key supports at 140.00/139.88 (psychological / 2025 low).

Limited corrective action should be capped under broken daily Kijun-sen / 50% retracement (144.26).

Res: 143.23; 143.92; 144.26; 144.62.
Sup: 142.35; 141.95; 141.42; 140.47.

Interested in USD/JPY technicals? Check out the key levels

1. R3 146.27
2. R2 145.34
3. R1 144.68
PP 143.74
1. S1 143.08
2. S2 142.14
3. S3 141.48

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

EUR/USD remains bid, focus stays on 1.1900

EUR/USD has broken its two-day run of losses and is ticking modestly higher on Thursday, hovering around the 1.1880 area as the US Dollar struggles to find clear direction. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose more than expected, taking a bit of shine off the Greenback, but markets are largely in wait-and-see mode ahead of Friday’s US CPI release.

GBP/USD picks up pace, hits 1.3640

GBP/USD trades with modest gains around 1.3640 so far on Thursday. Indeed, Cable looks to leave behind the weakness seen in the first half of the week in a context of an equally erratic performance in the Greenback and disappoting UK data releases.

Gold stays offered below $5,100

Gold keeps the choppy trade well in place on Thursday, navigating the area below the $5,100 mark per troy ounce amid the lack of clear direction in the Greenback, declining US Treasury yields across the curve and caution ahead of Friday’s publication of US CPI.