USD/JPY: Nine year currency cycles and yearly averages

Brian Twomey Brian's Investment

USD/JPY's historic range since 1995 traded 147 to 79 lows or 6800 pips and a 27 year mid point at 113.00's. Current USD/JPY lifted from 113's and 114's to 126.00's or 1200 pips.

Last time USD/JPY experienced such a violent move was 2016's central bank interest rate changes when USD/JPY traded 2300 pips down then 1000 pips up.

USD/JPY's current jump to 126's began at 2021 lows at 102 or 2400 pips. From a yearly perspective, USD/JPY matches 2022's at 1300 yearly pips and 2021 at 1300 pips measured from yearly lows and highs. Only other time USD/JPY exceeded 1300 yearly pips was 2014 when the ECB went negative interest rates as USD/JPY traded 2000 pips straight up and 1900 up pips in 2013. Year 2016 was unusual since 1995 as USD/JPY traded 2300 pips higher and 1000 pips lower.

Overall, 1300 yearly pips is fairly average for USD/JPY trading.

Since 2017, USD/JPY never exceeded an 1100 yearly pip range. A full currency cycle is measured in 9 years. Currency cycles are structured in either up or down periods over the 9 years. The current 9 year cycle from 2013 traded 5000 pips higher from 76.00 lows to 126.00's while the previous cycle from 2012 to 2003 traded down 4800 pips.

The 9 year cycle from 1995 to 2004 was also a down period as USD/JPY traded 147 highs to 101 lows or 4600 pips. The current 9 year cycle from 5000 pips exceeded the past 2 cycles by 200 and 400 pips. The cycle from 1995 to 1984 ran straight up.

The past 4 cycles of 9 years ran up, down, down then the current up cycle. The next 9 year cycle if past is prologue forecasts a down cycle. A 9 year cycle is a 9 year trade in one direction for 5000 ish pips.

The full cycle traded from 360.00 highs to 79 lows over a 69 period and a mid point at 219. For 1/4 of 360 factors to 90.00 and 1/3 at 120.00.

USD/JPY Correlates to all JPY cross pairs at an extraordinary 99%. Vital averages are located at 125.34, 124.18, 120.39, 120.30.

GBP/JPY 163.48, 162.51, 159.29, 158.95. GBP/JPY 10 and 14 Year averages targets 168.54 and 169.34. GBP/JPY at 165 is close. GBP/JPY will lead USD/JPY and all JPY cross pairs lower.

Author

Brian Twomey

Brian's Investment

Brian Twomey is an independent trader and a prolific writer on trading, having authored over sixty articles in Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities and Investopedia.

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