USD/JPY holds steady after intervention: Outlook remains uncertain

USD/JPY fell to 157.47 on Wednesday, with the Japanese yen pausing its recent strengthening. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed Washington’s support for Japan following the historic joint currency intervention.

Over three sessions, the yen appreciated by nearly 5% after coordinated purchases by Tokyo and Washington, marking the largest such operation in decades. Both countries have declared their readiness to intervene again if necessary.

According to the Bank of Japan, Tokyo deployed approximately 5.33 trillion yen during Friday’s operations to support the currency. The previous day, media reports indicated that intervention volumes had reached a record 8.45 trillion yen.

In July 2026, the yen had fallen to four-decade lows, weighed down by rising energy prices, budget risks, and a wide interest rate differential. In parallel, real wages in Japan rose for the sixth consecutive month in June, strengthening the case for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.

Technical analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 157.17 level, currently extending up to 157.90. A move lower towards 157.17 is expected today, followed by a move higher to 159.10. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing upwards.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has completed a downward move to 156.22, followed by a rise to 157.90. A move lower towards at least 157.17 is expected next, followed by a move higher to 159.10. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating short-term downside pressure.

Conclusion

USD/JPY has stabilised after a historic joint intervention by Japanese and US authorities, which drove a nearly 5% appreciation in the yen over three sessions. Both countries have signalled readiness to act again if needed, with Tokyo deploying record intervention volumes. The yen had previously fallen to multi-decade lows due to high energy prices, fiscal concerns, and interest rate differentials. However, rising real wages and signals from the Bank of Japan may support further yen strength. Technically, USD/JPY appears to be consolidating around 157.17, with a potential pullback towards this level before resuming an upward move to 159.10. The pair’s direction remains uncertain, hinging on further intervention, Bank of Japan policy signals, and global risk sentiment.