USD/JPY Forecast: Unable to regain ground above the 110.00 threshold

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

USD/JPY Current price: 109.81

The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain policy unchanged, focus on climate change.
US government bond yields fell to fresh weekly lows post-Powell.
USD/JPY is poised to extend its decline heading into the weekend.

The USD/JPY pair ended Tuesday below the 110.00 threshold and near its daily low. The pair fell to 109.70 at the beginning of the day, recovering to 110.08 ahead of the US opening, to later resume its decline. The soft tone of the pair was back by stocks, as global indexes remained under pressure while US government bond yields fell to fresh weekly lows. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note stood at 1.299%, limiting the upside for USD/JPY.

Earlier in the day, Japan published the May Tertiary Industry Index, which fell by 2.7% worse than the previous -0.7%. This Friday, the Bank of Japan is having a monetary policy meeting and is expected to maintain its monetary policy unchanged. Interest rates stand at -0.1%, while the central bank has set a target at around zero per cent for its 10-year yield target. Market participants will be looking for clues on whether policymakers decide to encourage banks to deliver green financing.

USD/JPY short-term technical outlook

The USD/JPY pair maintains the near-term bearish stance, heading into the Asian opening trading in the 109.80 price zone. The 4-hour chart shows that it spent the day below all of its moving averages, although the 20 and 200 SMAs converge directionless at around 110.20. Technical indicators resumed their declines within negative levels, with the Momentum already at fresh lows, supporting a bearish continuation.

Support levels: 109.70 109.25 108.90

Resistance levels: 110.20 110.65 111.00

View Live Chart for the USD/JPY

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 on fresh USD supply

AUD/USD bounces back toward 0.6950 in the Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar retreats from 17-month highs as traders take profits off the table ahead of the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar draws support from reviving expectations of a November interest rate hike amid elevated global yields and inflation risks.

USD/JPY struggles near 158.00 as USD retreats ahead of NFP

USD/JPY is struggling for fresh impetus near 158.00, moving away from the top end of its weekly range in the Asian session on Friday, after hotter-than-expected Tokyo CPI and amid a broad US Dollar retreat. Traders reposition themselves ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls.

Gold fades the earlier optimism; back below $4,200

Gold could not sustain the post-NFP bull run past the $4,200 mark per troy ounce, receding toward the $4,180 region at the end of the week. The precious metal’s inconclusive price action comes amid fresh selling pressure hurting the US Dollar as investors assess the latest NFP data.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP gains reinforce bullish outlook

Cryptocurrency prices are broadly recovering on Friday, led by Bitcoin moving above $86,000. Ethereum has reaffirmed its bullish outlook, rising above $2,700 while the immediate area at $2,800 caps upside. Meanwhile, Ripple hovers near $1.54.

Week ahead – Fed minutes in the spotlight amid bond market rout

Energy crisis and soaring bond yields to stay in driver’s seat in quiet week. Fed minutes eyed after drop in October rate hike bets. ISM services PMI and Treasury auctions to be watched too. Canadian employment, Japanese wages and ECB minutes also on tap.

The Euro is near a one-year low: Inflation could trigger its rebound, not its fall

EUR/USD has fallen to its lowest level since May 2025. The pair hit 1.1312 on Wednesday and trades well below the January peak of 1.2082. The decline reflects a powerful combination of US Dollar strength, geopolitical uncertainty and renewed concerns about Europe's exposure to higher energy prices.