USD/JPY Forecast: Increasingly bearish and nearing 104.00

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

USD/JPY Current price: 104.26

The thanksgiving holiday in the US maintains majors within familiar levels.
Japan’s Leading Economic Index printed at 92.5 in September, below expected.
USD/JPY gains bearish potential but still trades above 104.00.

The American dollar is still the weakest currency across the FX board, with the JPY appreciating despite a sour market’s mood. Thinned trading amid a US holiday sees major pairs holding within familiar levels. The USD/JPY pair is trading lower in range in the 104.20 price zone.

Japan published the final reading of the September Leading Economic Index, which resulted at 92.5, below the 92.9 expected. The Coincident Index for the same period improved to 81.1. The US won’t release macroeconomic data for the rest of the week.

USD/JPY short-term technical outlook

The USD/JPY pair is neutral-to-bearish in the near-term, as the 4-hour chart shows that it is unable to surpass a mildly bearish 20 SMA. The longer moving averages gain bearish strength above the shorter one, skewing the risk to the downside. The Momentum indicator remains directionless around its midline, while the RSI indicator turned south, currently at 45, further supporting another leg lower.

Support levels: 103.95 103.50 103.15

Resistance levels: 104.65 105.00 105.40

View Live Chart for the USD/JPY

Premium

You have reached your limit of 3 free articles for this month.

Start your subscription and get access to all our original articles.

Subscribe to Premium Sign In

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

EUR/USD weakens to near 1.1900 as traders eye US data

EUR/USD eases to near 1.1900 in Tuesday's European trading hours, snapping the two-day winning streak. Markets turn cautious, lifting the haven demand for the US Dollar ahead of the release of key US economic data, including Retail Sales and ADP Employment Change 4-week average.

GBP/USD stays in the red below 1.3700 on renewed USD demand

GBP/USD trades on a weaker note below 1.3700 in the European session on Tuesday. The pair faces challenges due to renewed US Dollar demand, UK political risks and rising expectations of a March Bank of England rate cut. The immediate focus is now on the US Retail Sales data.

Gold sticks to modest losses above $5,000 ahead of US data

Gold sticks to modest intraday losses through the first half of the European session, though it holds comfortably above the $5,000 psychological mark and the daily swing low. The outcome of Japan's snap election on Sunday removes political uncertainty, which along with signs of easing tensions in the Middle East, remains supportive of the upbeat market mood. This turns out to be a key factor exerting downward pressure on the safe-haven precious metal.

Bitcoin Cash trades lower, risks dead-cat bounce amid bearish signals

Bitcoin Cash trades in the red below $522 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after multiple rejections at key resistance. BCH’s derivatives and on-chain indicators point to growing bearish sentiment and raise the risk of a dead-cat bounce toward lower support levels.

Follow the money, what USD/JPY in Tokyo is really telling you

Over the past two Tokyo sessions, this has not been a rate story. Not even close. Interest rate differentials have been spectators, not drivers. What has moved USD/JPY in local hours has been flow and flow alone.

Bitcoin Cash trades lower, risks dead-cat bounce amid bearish signals

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) trades in the red below $522 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after multiple rejections at key resistance. BCH’s derivatives and on-chain indicators point to growing bearish sentiment and raise the risk of a dead-cat bounce toward lower support levels.