Richard Perry
Independent Analyst
USD/JPY
There is a mild negative bias that is weighing on the outlook of Dollar/Yen. This comes as the past few sessions have seen negative closes and daily momentum indicators begin to roll over again. However, the bulls have once more defended the key April lows and support at 106.90. A rally into the close yesterday prevented what would have been a rather bearish looking candle from taking hold. Instead the hourly chart shows that how the bulls react in the resistance of overhead supply between 107.25/107.35 will be key today. Early indications are that this resistance is weighing on the outlook again, and this little rebound is again turning over. If this rally does fail at 107.35, then it would suggest mounting bear pressure and re-open a test of 106.90 once more. Hourly momentum suggests this is already building, and is increasingly correctively configured now. Hourly MACD lines are consistently below neutral and RSI failing around 50/60 before falling towards 30 again. This all points to selling into strength now. This near term outlook would turn considerably more negative on a decisive (closing) breach of 106.90 which would open 105.85 and then the old 104.50/105.00 band. A close above 107.60 would be a strong enough reaction to suggest the bulls are still fighting hard near term.
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