Gold awaits CPI as macro risk and easing bets support demand

Gold (XAU/USD) pulled back beneath $5,000 but remains underpinned by macro uncertainty and easing bets. Strong U.S. payroll data has not shifted market bets on rate cuts, keeping real yields in check. Meanwhile, attention turns to the upcoming CPI report, which may influence the short-term outlook. Despite near-term risks, broader macro uncertainty and structural pressures continue to support gold demand.

Gold stabilizes as markets eye CPI for clues on Fed policy path

Gold has slipped below the $5,000 mark but continues to find support as markets await the U.S. CPI report. Despite stronger-than-expected January payroll data, expectations for Fed rate cuts remain in place. The CME FedWatch Tool still reflects market confidence in at least two cuts this year. This outlook points to sustained monetary easing, which keeps real yields capped and supports demand for gold.

Meanwhile, the upcoming CPI report could play a key role in shaping the Fed outlook. Markets expect annual core inflation to ease to 2.5%, with a 0.3% rise on the monthly reading. A hotter print may reduce the likelihood of rate cuts and support the U.S. Dollar. That could weigh on gold in the near term by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

However, gold’s current strength also reflects demand beyond just rate expectations. Growing concerns over AI-driven disruption are fueling caution across sectors. The real estate space, in particular, is under pressure as fears of AI spillover intensify. These underlying risks continue to support safe-haven flows into gold, even as economic data delivers upside surprises.

Gold consolidates within ascending wedge after sharp rejection

The gold chart below shows a steady uptrend developing within an ascending broadening wedge. This pattern began forming in late 2024, marked by expanding price swings and rising highs and lows. The structure reflects growing bullish momentum and may support further gains if macro conditions remain favorable.

In early 2026, gold climbed sharply toward the wedge’s upper boundary, reaching $5,600 before pulling back. The sharp move higher signaled short-term exhaustion, triggering a swift pullback. However, gold found support and stabilized quickly. It is now consolidating near $4,960, holding above key structural support within the pattern, which suggests the broader uptrend remains intact for now.

Crucially, the lower boundary of the wedge continues to act as long-term support. As long as gold holds above key support levels within this structure, the pattern favors further upside. The broadening nature of the wedge reflects increased volatility, but also expanding bullish momentum. If macro catalysts like softer inflation or rising geopolitical stress persist, gold could challenge the upper resistance zone and extend its gains over time.

Gold outlook: Macro risks and Fed bets keep bullish case intact

Gold remains supported by a combination of macro uncertainty, policy easing expectations, and rising structural risks. Despite the pullback below $5,000, the broader setup remains constructive. Price continues to consolidate within a bullish wedge pattern, holding above key support. While a hotter CPI print may weigh on the short-term outlook, underlying safe-haven flows remain intact. A softer inflation reading or renewed geopolitical stress could help stabilize gold and maintain upward bias.