USD/CHF stable at the bottom of a downtrend

USD/CHF trades sideways near 8-month low, below 20-SMA.
Short-term outlook is hazy, but optimism is still there.
Key resistance at 0.8522; support at 0.8330.

Christina Parthenidou XM

USDCHF has been in a tight range within the 0.8400 region so far this week, remaining trapped below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the resistance trendline from July near 0.8470.

Despite the absence of strong bullish signals, the bullish divergence in the RSI and MACD remains a source of optimism for a positive reversal.

Nonetheless, buyers might adopt a wait-and-see approach until the price breaks above 0.8475 and moves out of its horizontal path above 0.8522. The latter overlaps with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the December 2023-April 2024 upleg. Hence, a violation there could activate a new bullish wave towards the 50-day SMA at 0.8618. Further up, the pair may take a breather around the 61.8% Fibonacci mark of 0.8672 before stretching towards the 0.8725 bar.

A potential support level might form near the declining constraining line from October 2023 at 0.8398. The 9-year low of 0.8330 registered in December 2023 could be the next destination. Sellers must breach that base to access the critical 2015 floor of 0.8200. Even lower, the spotlight will turn to the bottom of the bearish channel seen near 0.8077.

In conclusion, USDCHF is expected to remain neutral in the short-term, unless it runs above 0.8522 or below 0.8330.

Author

Christina Parthenidou

Christina joined the XM investment research department in May 2017. She holds a master degree in Economics and Business from the Erasmus University Rotterdam with a specialization in International economics.

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