USD/CAD trade idea: How to play the short term trend accelerating lower

Introduction

VolatilityMarkets suggests top quant trade ideas to take advantage of trending markets.

Market summary

USDCAD last price was $ 1.330608. In the short term USDCAD has been accelerating lower. In the long term USDCAD has been accelerating lower. Over the past 19 days, the USDCAD price increased 10 days and decreased 9 days. For every up day, there were 0.9 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 0.121% The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.2404% Over the past 19 Days, the price has decreased by -0.96% percent. Over the past 19 days, the average return per day has been -0.0505% percent. With the short term trend being the stronger of the two, we propose a short trade idea with an overnight time horizon.

The trade idea

Sell $ 818,560 USD, or 8.19 lots of USDCAD, take profit at $ 1.3278 level with 25.0% odds for a $ 1,701 USD gain, stop out at $ 1.3322 with 49.87% odds for a $ 1,000 USD loss through O/N time horizon.

Intraday predictions

USD/CAD trend analysis

USDCAD last price was $ 1.330608. The short term trend accelerating lower is stronger than the long term trend accelerating lower. This trade goes short when the last change was lower and accelerating.

USDCAD value analysis

Over the past 19 days, the USDCAD price increased 10 days and decreased 9 days. For every up day, there were 0.9 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 0.121% The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.2404% Over the past 19 Days, the price has decreased by -0.96% percent. Over the past 19 days, the average return per day has been -0.0505% percent.

USDCAD worst/best case scenario analysis

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won't trade for USDCAD, is $ 1.325892, and the best case scenario overnight is $ 1.335324. levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that $ 1.3322 could trade and that $ 1.3278 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Key Takeaways:

• Price today $ 1.330608

• Over the past 19 days, the USDCAD price increased 10 days and decreased 9 Days.

• For every up day, there were 0.9 down days.

• The average return on days where the price increased is 0.121%.

• The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.2404%.

• Over the past 19 Days, the price has decreased by -0.96% percent.

• Over the past 19 days, the average return per day has been -0.0505% percent.

• Over the past 19 days, The price has on average been accelerating: 1.6411 pips per day lower.

• Over the last session, the price decreased by -33.42 pips.

• Over the last session, the price decreased by -0.2512 %.

• Over the last session, the price accelerated by 31.42 pips.