The Canadian dollar is unchanged in the Monday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3016, down 0.04% on the day. On the release front, the focus is on retail sales reports. Retail Sales is expected to gain 0.7%, while Core Retail Sales is forecast to climb 0.3%. The U.S Treasury is expected to release the semi-annual currency report. In Canada, the sole event is the Bank of Canada business outlook survey.
U.S. consumer inflation reports missed their estimates, and the Canadian dollar took advantage, posting gains on Thursday. CPI and Core CPI both posted small gains of 0.1%, shy of the estimate of 0.2%. On a year-to-year basis, CPI increased 2.3% in September, down from 2.7% in August. Still, with inflation above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, these readings are unlikely to affect the Fed’s plans to raise interest rates in December, which would mark the fourth rate increase this year. The likelihood of a rate hike remains high, with the CME pegging the odds at 76%.
With the U.S economy continuing to post strong numbers, the Federal Reserve is on track to raise rates in December. This would be the fourth rate hike in 2018, and the markets are expecting three more hikes in 2019. Not surprisingly, this has put pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise rates as well. The Canadian economy is in good shape, but not nearly as strong as its southern neighbor. The Bank of Canada holds its next policy meeting on October 24, and the strength of key Canadian releases will be a major factor as to whether policymakers raise rates.
USD/CAD Fundamentals
Monday (October 15)
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8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%
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8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.7%
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8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 20.4
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10:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.5%
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10:30 Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey
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Tentative – US Treasury Currency Report
Tuesday (October 16)
- 10:00 US JOLTS Openings. Estimate 6.90M S2
USD/CAD Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R1 | R3 |
| 1.2733 | 12831 | 1.2970 | 1.3067 | 1.3067 | 1.3292 |
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1.2970 is providing support
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1.3067 is the next resistance line
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Current range: 1.2970 to 1.3067
Further levels in both directions:
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Below: 1.2970, 1.2831, 1.2733 and 1.2649
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Above: 1.3067, 1.3198 and 1.3292
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