USD/CAD Forecast: Canadian dollar subdued, U.S jobless claims ahead

Kenny Fisher MarketPulse

The Canadian dollar has ticked higher in the Thursday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3364, up 0.10% on the day. On the release front, Canada releases a housing report. In the U.S., the key event is unemployment claims, which is expected to drop to 226 thousand. On Friday, the U.S. releases retail sales reports.

U.S. inflation was flat in November, dropping from 0.3 percent a month earlier. This marked the lowest level since May. Core CPI remained pegged at 0.2 percent. The weak readings can be attributed to falling oil prices, which has led to a sharp decline in gasoline prices. On an annualized basis, inflation gained 2.2 percent in November, down from 2.5 percent in October. With the U.S. economy showing signs of slowing down, and the global trade war taking a bite out of the global economy, inflation could continue to head lower as we head into 2019.

The Bank of Canada remains in caution mode, even after strong employment numbers last week. The economy created over 94 thousand jobs, crushing the estimate of 10.1 thousand. As well, the unemployment rate dropped from 5.8 percent to 5.6 percent. However, all is not well with the economy, as GDP declined 0.1% in September, the second decline this year. The bank held interest rates at its policy meeting last week and is expected to do so again in January.

Equity markets build on yesterday’s gains

OANDA Trading :No PM May’ hem but unfortunately no Brexit catharsis either.

Pound sterling odds of parity slashed

USD/CAD Fundamentals

8:30 Canadian NHPI. Estimate 0.0%
8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 226K
8:30 US Import Prices. Estimate -1.0%
10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -81B
13:01 US 30-year Bond Auction
14:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate -193.5B
8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%
8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.1%

Open: 1.3351 High: 1.3375 Low: 1.3344 Close: 1.3364

USD/CAD Technical

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
1.3099	1.3198	1.3292	1.3382	1.3461	1.3552

USD/CAD was flat in the Asian session and has ticked higher in European trade

1.3292 is providing support
1.3382 is a weak resistance line
Current range: 1.3292 to 1.3382

Further levels in both directions:

Below: 1.3292, 1.3198 and 1.3099
Above: 1.3382, 1.3461, 1.3552 and 1.3696

Author

Kenny Fisher

MarketPulse

A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities.

EUR/USD tests nine-day EMA support near 1.1850

EUR/USD inches lower during the Asian hours on Monday, trading around 1.1870 at the time of writing. The 14-day Relative Strength Index momentum indicator at 56 stays above the midline, confirming improving momentum. RSI has cooled from prior overbought readings but stabilizes above 50, suggesting dips could stay limited before buyers reassert control.

GBP/USD flat lines as traders await key UK macro data and FOMC minutes

The GBP/USD pair kicks off a new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow range, just below mid-1.3600s, during the Asian session. Moreover, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for aggressive traders as the market focus now shifts to this week's important releases from the UK and the US.

Gold slides below $5,000 amid USD uptick and positive risk tone; downside seems limited

Gold attracts fresh sellers at the start of a new week and reverses a part of Friday's strong move up of over $150 from sub-$4,900 levels. The commodity slides back below the $5,000 psychological mark during the Asian session, though the downside potential seems limited amid a combination of supporting factors.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple consolidate within key ranges as selling pressure eases

Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have been trading sideways within key ranges following the massive correction. Meanwhile, XRP recovers slightly, breaking above the key resistance zone. The top three cryptocurrencies hint at a potential short-term recovery, with momentum indicators showing fading bearish signs.

Global inflation watch: Signs of cooling services inflation

Realized inflation landed close to expectations in January, as negative base effects weighed on the annual rates. Remaining sticky inflation is largely explained by services, while tariff-driven goods inflation remains limited even in the US.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.