USD/CAD Forecast: Canadian dollar subdued, U.S jobless claims ahead

Kenny Fisher MarketPulse

The Canadian dollar has ticked higher in the Thursday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3364, up 0.10% on the day. On the release front, Canada releases a housing report. In the U.S., the key event is unemployment claims, which is expected to drop to 226 thousand. On Friday, the U.S. releases retail sales reports.

U.S. inflation was flat in November, dropping from 0.3 percent a month earlier. This marked the lowest level since May. Core CPI remained pegged at 0.2 percent. The weak readings can be attributed to falling oil prices, which has led to a sharp decline in gasoline prices. On an annualized basis, inflation gained 2.2 percent in November, down from 2.5 percent in October. With the U.S. economy showing signs of slowing down, and the global trade war taking a bite out of the global economy, inflation could continue to head lower as we head into 2019.

The Bank of Canada remains in caution mode, even after strong employment numbers last week. The economy created over 94 thousand jobs, crushing the estimate of 10.1 thousand. As well, the unemployment rate dropped from 5.8 percent to 5.6 percent. However, all is not well with the economy, as GDP declined 0.1% in September, the second decline this year. The bank held interest rates at its policy meeting last week and is expected to do so again in January.

Equity markets build on yesterday’s gains

OANDA Trading :No PM May’ hem but unfortunately no Brexit catharsis either.

Pound sterling odds of parity slashed

USD/CAD Fundamentals

8:30 Canadian NHPI. Estimate 0.0%
8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 226K
8:30 US Import Prices. Estimate -1.0%
10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -81B
13:01 US 30-year Bond Auction
14:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate -193.5B
8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%
8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.1%

Open: 1.3351 High: 1.3375 Low: 1.3344 Close: 1.3364

USD/CAD Technical

S3	S2	S1	R1	R2	R3
1.3099	1.3198	1.3292	1.3382	1.3461	1.3552

USD/CAD was flat in the Asian session and has ticked higher in European trade

1.3292 is providing support
1.3382 is a weak resistance line
Current range: 1.3292 to 1.3382

Further levels in both directions:

Below: 1.3292, 1.3198 and 1.3099
Above: 1.3382, 1.3461, 1.3552 and 1.3696

Author

Kenny Fisher

MarketPulse

A highly experienced financial market analyst with a focus on fundamental analysis, Kenneth Fisher’s daily commentary covers a broad range of markets including forex, equities and commodities.

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold clings to gains just above $5,000/oz

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s move higher is also underpinned by the slight pullback in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest

Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.

Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.