USD/CAD Forecast: Canadian dollar edges higher, oil prices rise as U.S. tightens sanctions on Iran

USD/CAD has edged lower in the Monday session. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 1.3372, down 0.14% on the day. It’s a quiet start to the week, with no Canadian events. In the U.S., there is only one release. Existing home sales is expected to slow to 5.31 million in March, after a strong reading of 5.51 a month earlier. Housing data will remain in focus on Tuesday, with the release of the housing price index and new home sales.

Oil prices have spiked on Monday, after the Trump administration announced that it would terminate sanction waivers given to some importers of Iranian oil, as of May 1. This move is intended to further tighten sanctions against Iran and cripple Iranian oil exports. Crude oil has jumped to its highest level since early November. This could boost the Canadian currency this week, as Canada is a major oil producer.

Canadian consumer spending and inflation numbers were solid last week, but that wasn’t enough to prevent a losing week for the Canadian dollar. CPI remained steady at a respectable 0.7%. Retail sales jumped 0.8%, ending a losing streak of three straight declines. Core retail sales also were solid, with a gain of 0.6%.

The spotlight will be on the Bank of Canada on Wednesday, as officials set the benchmark rate and release a rate statement. With the Canadian economy showing signs of a slowdown, there has been talk of the BoC cutting rates, with futures markets pricing in a cut the next time that the bank makes a move. However, the benchmark rate is expected to remain pegged at 1.75% for a fifth straight month at this week’s meeting.

Canadian consumer spending and inflation numbers were solid last week, but that wasn’t enough to prevent a losing week for the Canadian dollar. CPI remained steady at a respectable 0.7%. Retail sales jumped 0.8%, ending a losing streak of three straight declines. Core retail sales also were solid, with a gain of 0.6%.

Big Earnings, Rate Decisions and US GDP once markets return from holiday

Iran sanctions waivers hit sentiment in Asia

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Monday (April 22)

• 10:00 US Existing Home Sales. Estimate 5.31M

Tuesday (April 23

• 9:00 US HPI. Estimate 0.6%

• 10:00 US New Home Sales. Estimate 647K

Open: 1.3392 High: 1.3392 Low: 1.3355 Close: 1.3372

USD/CAD Technical

USD/CAD posted slight losses in the Asian session. The pair showed limited movement in the European session and is steady in North American trade

• 1.3290 is providing support

• 1.3383 has switched to resistance after USD/CAD dropped on Monday. It remains a weak line

• Current range: 1.3290 to 1.3383

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.3290, 1.3200 and 1.3125

• Above: 1.3383, 1.3445, 1.3552 and 1.3662